Tour Prediction and Speculation Thread Tour • Page 913

I just looked at Ticketmaster for the Portland show and a few others and they are selling well. Not many blue seats left at a lot of places. StubHub is just resellers. The venue, band , and ticketmaster already have their money. I’m not sure how you see this as them losing big on this tour. I’m not trying to defend them, I just don’t think headlines like that actually reflect reality.

 

Resellers are unlikely to buy up tickets for them ever again after losing out big time on this tour. The only reason these have sold well is that resellers bought up all of the tickets. These tickets weren’t purchased by actual fans. Otherwise there wouldn’t be a ton of tickets for $10 or less to these shows on Stubhub. My point is without resellers, they would have bombed big time for most of these shows and I don’t see them being able to these big of venues ever again. Even if they made money on this tour, there is a lot of evidence that this is likely not something that is sustainable in the future.

 

me too lmao once Silent Alarm in full wasn't happening I dipped so fast

 

Regardless if they sold 10% or 100% of the tickets the band still got their advance. BUT the fact that they couldn’t get anyone to open the tour, a lot of venues are only a quarter sold (ie Rochester and Charleston), and the shows that did sell well are going for $5 on stubhub, means that AEG lost out big time. Which means that no promoter is going to front them these large advances or put them in big rooms again.

Look at those Rochester and Charleston seating charts. Those are either going to get cancelled, downgraded to a smaller venue, or they’ll move forward playing to 3,000 people in a 16,000 person venue. Either option will lead to bad press.

 

I’m actually surprised how this tour didn’t instantly sell out, like “hey maybe there are some decent people left out there.”

 

I dunno I looked at other dates like Philly near me and it sold out like right away and there isn’t cheap tickets for resale so might just depend on the city/venue

 

idk the Philly date has like a couple thousand tickets on the secondary, those tickets will most likely also be very cheap

 

Idk where else to share this, but Jim Ward is opening for Coldplay in a few weeks

 

Again, tickets selling for $5 on StubHub is a good gotcha headline, but if they are on StubHub, ticketmaster and AEG/live nation already have the full dollar amount. All the StubHub stat shows is that there is little interest in the resale market. I’m not a BN apologist, but I think when they release the stats on the tour it will have done well. They over shot some markets but sold well in a lot of markets.

 

For AEG/Live Nation profits from ticket sales mainly just get them to recoup the advances paid to the artist. They really bank on their cut from alcohol/food/merch/parking sales. Which will probably be less than they were hoping for.

I’m mostly agreeing with you, on paper it’s gonna look like the tour did pretty well. But it’s going to affect any future touring plans. Scalpers learned their lesson, they’re not gonna bother trying to gobble up tickets for the next tour. And the promoters know that, and thus know there won’t be any true demand the next go around.

Basically, this’ll be the last time they ever try to book arenas/theaters. They’ll be a house of blues band if they continue on.

 

Completely agree with you on the size of venues for the future with the exceptions of a couple of markets that can support 5k people. I think this shows that they will always have a hardcore group of followers, but they lost too many others who will never give them another cent.

 

I know that they have played large venues in the past but even when this tour was announced even without the allegations and being "cancelled" the venues appeared to be way too large...I mean even in 2018 on their last tour they played a 3K venue in NYC and now they are not only playing in a 17k arena with another show in NJ....I totally agree with you and highly doubt this will be their end and theyll be back playing those smaller venues again next year

 

But will they be playing them in full? /s

 

Doubt it. Remains to be seen if they feature songs from Thrill Seeker and FIFAP both nights or if they split them between both. I bought the Thrill Seeker vinyl they issued from the COVID livestream, but would love to see them play a bunch of those tracks to a crowd again.

 

I hate that Christmas shows are being announced. The year is over

 

Wonder if the ADTR/YC thing announces tomorrow. Rumor was presale 6/5

 

Sucks that Saves the Day keep being given a platform.

 

Chicago date for Elliot just dropped (Saturday, 10/4 @ Cobra Lounge). The artwork says "US tour 2025." So between this, Best Friends Forever Fest, and the 10/18 show at the Glasshouse in Pomona, CA I'm guessing they've got a bunch lined up this fall

Any word on other tour dates? Or when an announcement might be imminent? I know they were teasing new music ~2 weeks back...

 

The ticket prices are insane at the Rochester show. Lower level is 120 lmao. Thats more than I paid for the Eras tour. No wonder they arent selling.

 

It’s bittersweet for me. Didn’t go to as many shows as I planned for first part of the year, but I’m catching up on debt and planning for a big fall/winter. I’m just hoping Orange Man’s stupid ass policies don’t derail plans for too many artists in the near future.