Tour Prediction and Speculation Thread [ARCHIVED] Tour • Page 1394

Does August still feel like wishful thinking to anyone else?

 

At this point, anything feels like wishful thinking. But I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for some parts of the world to be holding bigger events at that point. All just kinda depends on what forms things take (will they be social distanced, will you need to show proof of vaccine, etc).

 

I still think large festivals and arena/stadium tours are going to be super hard to pull off.

I think smaller venues could pull of a show for like, 30% - 50% capacity. I'm not sure how you make people prove they're vaccinated. It's 2021, anybody can create a form or something that says they're vaccinated but may not really be vaccinated. Also, are all states going to have the same freedoms/restrictions set? May be hard to pull of tours if one state is allowing 100% cap but another state is only allowing 25% (i.e. Texas full, Ohio 25%)

And even if venues allow for anything other than full capacity, I posted a Rolling Stone article from a week or two ago saying that wouldn't be worth it for venues/musicians to tour off of and that even with the promise of vaccines, they still don't expect to go on tours (successfully) until 2022.

I will say, I am more optimistic about things than I was a month or so ago. The supply of vaccines are coming much faster than I personally expected BUT I still think the biggest hurdle is going to get people to take it.

 

Smaller venues that do “actual” shows aren’t going to happen unless they can be at close to 100% capacity as possible. So many of these tours need 80%+ of the place to sell out before they see any kind of money on top of their guarantee.

A 30-50% capacity Grayscale show loses money for everyone involved.

 

Interesting, but I have seen a few local venues create outdoor spaces to host shows when they come back. Outdoors they could do 100% capacity of indoors and still socially distance. Obviously this isn't plausible for a lot of clubs, but I'm sure each city will have something similar.

 

I agree with this, which is why I’ve been saying for months i don’t see shows happening this year.

 

I guess I just don’t really follow. Isn’t the US vaccinating people at a really good pace? Shouldn’t everyone that wants one be able to get one by the end of the summer, at the latest? If that’s the case, why can’t shows in the fall happen?

If the argument is that a substantial number of people won’t take the vaccine, where do you draw the line? Many of those people are never going to take it, so how long do you leave these kinds of industries on hold before you just say “too bad, we tried” and resume things as they were pre-pandemic?

There’s no doubt in my mind shows here in Canada will be happening by the fall.

 

At the current clip vaccines are going in North America, I definitely think local shows worth going to might be a thing before the end of 2021. Whether or not a band can string together a viable tour remains to be seen. Especially if we're talking bands worth seeing in 100-500 cap venues.

 

Yeah, if we keep up the pace here in the States, I think we should be good by the fall. The key isn't making sure that everybody gets vaccinated. The key is making sure that those who want the vaccine have access to it. Because, as you said, at a certain point you can't let the people who actively don't want the vaccine to hold the world back.

I'm sure there will be some sort of data-driven threshold (probably determined by each individual state) that says "Once we have X million people vaccinated, we can start going back to business as usual."

And from there, who knows what will happen? Personally, I do think there will be some sort of "proof of vaccination" requirement for a number of things (flying, sporting events, concerts) that will further encourage people to get vaccinated. Sure they can be forged but only a small minority of people will bother to do that.

I think things are going to open up at a normal capacity far quicker than people are thinking. It'll still be a slow roll, and who knows what the demand is even going to be for certain things... But I think we'll be good in at least some parts of the US by the fall.

I honestly think we see a fall full of quick regional runs to test the waters and see how things are feeling. With full runs beginning in 2022.

Festivals will probably be an all or nothing thing. I don't see them operating at anything lower than 100% capacity with very, very strong pre-sales. But I'm starting to feel good about those happening too.

 

One of my questions with festivals is how are they going to handle the international fans. For example, I have friends from Mexico who already have tickets for Riot Fest, but the vaccine roll out over there is going really slow. Riot Fest gets fans from all over the world and thats the case with all medium to large size festivals.

Is it possible that festivals or even concerts in general are going to be only for people who have lived in the US for a certain amount of time?

 

I think it's important to note that, all the vaccines right now are for adults. Teenagers are not eligible yet and teenagers make up a HUGE population of concerts. Like, do you think Twenty One Pilots or Taylor Swift can justify playing an arena show when 80% of the fans in the building would not be vaccinated?

The answer of that of course, is, venues could make shows 18 and over, but you're going to lose out on a lot of fans, and for bigger artists, may not make a whole lot of sense.

 

Good point.

Has there been a timeline given as to when younger people will be able to get vaccinated? I’m sure it varies by state, but any idea what it’s looking like right now?

Our provincial government here in Ontario has been saying anyone who wants one will be able to get one by July 1st, which bodes well for normal life resuming by the fall.

 

Faucci said yesterday that 12-17 should begin vaccinations by the fall, I believe. I know in Ohio, 16+ can start March 29. But it varies by each state. Younger than 12 wouldn't be until early 2022, Faucci said.

 

I got my first Moderna dose yesterday!

 

I was supposed to get my first dose of Pfizer in late February...but got Covid instead two weeks before my date.

 

COREY TAYLOR ANNOUNCES SOCIALLY DISTANCED & COVID-19 SAFE 2021 TOUR

5/18 Tempe, AZ The Marquee Backyard
5/20 Lubbock, TX Lonestar Event Center
5/21 San Antonio, TX Vibes Event Center
5/22 Houston, TX White Oak Music Hall
5/24 Dallas, TX Gas Monkey Outdoors
5/26 Oklahoma City, OK Diamond Ballroom
5/28 St. Louis, MO Pop’s
5/29 Nashville, TN Marathon Music Works
5/30 Chattanooga, TN The Signal
6/1 Belvidere, IL The Apollo Theatre
6/3 Green Bay, WI Epic Event Center
6/5 Fort Wayne, IN Piere’s Entertainment Center
6/7 Joliet, IL The Forge
6/11 Detroit, MI Harpo’s
6/12 East Moline, IL Rust Belt
6/15 Dubuque, IA Five Flags Event Center
6/17 Des Moines, IA Horizon Event Center
6/18 Wichita, KS The Cotillion Ballroom
6/19 Lincoln, NE Bourbon Theatre

 

I think this applies to all venue sizes from arenas down to under 100 cap DIY shows as well. Prior to COVID I was running merch for a small touring NJ pop-punk band, and whether it's a show at an established venue or a storage unit parking lot, I'd say roughly 50% of the attendees are under 18.

 

For sure...but you're far more likely to have a 100-500 cap venue implement an 18 and over show than you are a arena/stadium/amphitheater. Like, I've been to plenty of club shows that were 18 and over, but that would be unprecedented for bigger venues.

 

Lots of talk about shows now that vaccines are happening more and more daily, yet my work SM profiles (about 4K “friends”) showing at least 75% who do talk about the vaccine saying no chance they get one.

This, in a well educated part of the country.

 

I'm getting my second vaccine on Monday - I may check out that Corey Taylor show in May since it's outdoors.

edit: nvm it's already sold out

 

Official Bamboozle Festival

 

I mean the idea of Bamboozle coming back has me so damn excited.....but 2023? Why even bother making an announcement now?

 

I have very low expectations for this. Although I do have to say, going to the 2010 and 2011 festivals in New Jersey introduced me to a lot of new bands that got me through the early-mid 2010's. We Are The In Crowd is a great example.