Remove ads, unlock a dark mode theme, and get other perks by upgrading your account. Experience the website the way it's meant to be.

Syria's Civil War, 2011-ongoing World • Page 3

Discussion in 'Politics Forum' started by Wharf Rat, Apr 9, 2017.

  1. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    SDF and gov cooperation is encouraging
     
    armistice likes this.
  2. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    Yea seriously, it's been rough imagining any shred of stability coming out of this.
     
  3. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    Helluva thread transcripting the Nasrallah speech.





     
    Wharf Rat likes this.
  4. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious



    arrogance honestly. Rebels can't win
     
  5. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    Government launching the DeZ offensive. If Raqqa and DeZ are going to fall soon, ISIS is pretty much screwed
     
  6. skogsraet

    Trusted Supporter

    Alright look I just came to lurk this thread cause I know 0,000.00% about this war but here's what I don't get. If Raqqa and DeZ do fall, ISIS is "screwed" but in the context of what's going on here, what does that mean? Everyone decides problem solved and Russia and the US fuck off? ISIS goes the way of Al-Qaeda and another branch of extremism gets created? I mean does anyone involved actually have a feasible long term plan?
     
  7. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    Hah. Who knows. To be clear, they're screwed long term. Raqqa and Deir Ezzor are two very important strategic points, but also are their capital and their heartland, where their support is, they have weapons factories in Raqqa, etc. If the Syrian Army's advance were to look something like this person is predicting, and then if the Kurds take Raqqa, then the only actual territory ISIS will hold in Syria will be the desert between the Iraqi border and DeZ. Of course they'll still hold Mosul in Iraq, but other than that, they'll basically just have a bunch of desert, from which it probably won't be feasible to launch major counterattacks. That said, ISIS will still exist, and will still try to counterattack, and will still do terrorism, but its huge to have them out of major cities and strategic points.



    But, no, the war doesn't end when ISIS is defeated. There's still Idlib rebels in the northwest to be worried about, pockets around Homs and Damascus and Daara, etc. Also, Turkey is a wildcard, as they're liable to go on the offensive against SDF or the Syrian Government when they think they can. I can imagine the war ending with peace talks between SDF, the government, and the weakened rebels, resulting in some small political concessions to the islamist rebels and some amount of autonomy for Kurdish/Rojavan/minority-dominated areas. But even after this kind of process there would still be terrorist attacks, maybe even smaller insurgencies that wouldn't want to participate in peace talks, etc. I can also imagine it ending with Turkey invading Rojava, destroying it, and being a major player in peace talks, maybe even annexing part of Syria (we know Erdogan wants to). This would probably require both the US and the Russians to abandon the Kurds. I don't think that'll happen. I can also imagine it ending with the US attempting regime change, invading the country, but that require Russia to abandon Assad (or, we go to war with Russia). I don't think that's very likely at this point, either. My biggest is hope is to avoid fighting between SDF and the government, who will be the last biggest factions standing at the end of all this, and who are both backed by major foreign powers. You could also, maaaybe, imagine a partition along SDF/Government lines, with a US-aligned (leftist????? this would be weird for that reason) state in Kurdistan and the Russian-aligned Syrian state remaining on the other side of the Euphrates. The reconciliation between those two will be necessary for peace in the foreseeable future. And their have been good signs of that in the recent past.

    Does anyone have a plan? I'm sure they all have plans. What will probably need to happen to have any kind of peace is the reconciliation of the US/SDF plan and the Russia/Government plan. They don't tell the public about these things, though, so its all just guesswork.
     
    armistice likes this.
  8. armistice May 7, 2017
    (Last edited: May 19, 2017)
    armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    Also if US attempts regime change it will likely bring Iran and Hezbollah into the conflict conventionally. And this is all in the overarching framework that is the Sunni-Shia conflict that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been exacerbating by sending in al-Nusra jihadis and then the when that label soured funding the coalition of other jihadi groups the Islamic Front. Read up on when the IF rolled into Adra. Some pretty fucked up stuff happened. And Sunnis in Syria are still rightly pissed at assad after all this. Even if best case da'ish leadership crumbles and the saa, sdf, and pyd/ypg/ypj can kick out the mujahedin somehow the Assad/alawite-sunni conflict needs to be mediated.

    Also regarding the Iraq half, remember that the Shia government we installed basically used the years since US troops left to fuck over the Sunni minority who now make up the vast majority of da'ish recent recruits. Many prefer the weird made up shit da'ish call sharia over the way the Iraqi government was treating them. ie they have jobs, can afford food, and have more hours of electricity and internet. And even the Sunnis who have fled IS would love to watch them topple the Iraqi gov't.

    The unfortunate truth, regarding all MENA issues is that the US needs to tell SA, Qatar, and Turkey to fuck off. If we keep funding wahhabi extremists like this, the region is pretty fucked. Unless there is a drastic regime change in the US, SA, Turkey, and/or Russia I don't see a permanent solution ever happening. The US and UN really need to be held accountable for how they destroyed the region. Like there need to be WWII style war criminal trials and sanctions on the US, UK, and France just for starters.
     
    lightning13 and Wharf Rat like this.
  9. aranea

    Trusted Prestigious

     
    PandaBear!, armistice and Wharf Rat like this.
  10. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    Well, while I was kind of falling out of keeping up with this during finals, SDF took Taqba completely and the government has started its offensive from Palmyra. Big shit goin down soon.
     
    armistice and skogsraet like this.
  11. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

     
  12. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    I think we probably need a larger, more inclusive MENA politics thread, but in that absence it is fucking criminal how blatantly medieval, theocratic monarchies capitalise on western racism/xenophobia. Fucking shits are shameless and I can't wait til they're all fucking destitute and begging for scraps in gulags like brainless worms. Fuck this garbage. Solidarity with every person suffering from the effects of twatarchy.

     
    lightning13 likes this.
  13. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    Sure is weird that cholera popped up at the same time as that war, huh...
     
    armistice likes this.
  14. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    [​IMG]

    US: "Probable Bigfoot"
     
  15. aranea

    Trusted Prestigious

    armistice and Wharf Rat like this.
  16. iCarly Rae Jepsen

    run away with me Platinum

     
  17. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    very very bad bad bad bad
     
  18. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious



    rougly translated, ""There's a race to control the Iraqi/Syrian border. From the West, the SAA and NDF supported by Russia. From the South, FSA groups supported by Jordan and Coalition Special Forces. From the East, shia militias supported by Iran want to create territorial continuity between Irak and Syria but the US want to stop them."
     
  19. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious



    suuuuuure
     
  20. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    This war is just land grabbing now. There's still two major strategic points to be taken but they're already trying to grab all the ISIS land they can't control anymore. Fuck
     
  21. skogsraet

    Trusted Supporter

    I thought the US was trying not to piss Assad off (and therefore maybe irritate Russia), is that why this is so bad? I'm confused...again lol
     
  22. Wharf Rat

    I know a little something you won't ever know Prestigious

    US doesn't really care who it pisses off, but under Obama we had taken steps to not attack Assad because...well because Obama didn't want to do it, but that's probably because yeah, you're attacking an ally of another power who is on the ground working with together. Also it would be an illegal war but Obama didn't care about that lol. Also illegal in domestic law:

     
    skogsraet likes this.
  23. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    As Ben implied, the US is using imperialism most prevalently in recent years to further the narrative that it is the only sheriff in town (or whatever big-dick-swingin' analogy suits you). The line between the proxy war and the actual war is hard to find because western news sources are 100% worthless and news sources reporting facts are usually biased like Al-J. I think the assumption needs to be stated here that US intervention has not/ is not/ will not ever be positive due to the structurally imposed reality of its intervention. So on that level the question "why is this bad" is moot. It's bad because it is in and of itself an evil and negative machination.

    And I think that should be the only truth, but because the liberal state has proclaimed that its existence is on a higher level than these proxy wars and the "savage" countries it is trying to improve there is a compulsion to engage the state on those terms. And while I maintain that the best course would be to deny a platform for that line of discourse, it turns out that if you want to broad stroke all MENA conflicts in the eyes of the west, the US is in bed with SA, Qatar, Bahrain, and Turkey...all proponents of extremist, fundamentalist, Sunniism, the foremost being SA with their state-sanctioned and purported universal Wahhabi version of Islam. So the narrative of any US strike on a Shia, Kurdish, Alawite, Christian, etc. group is given further meaning with that context.

    The extremist Sunni line for decades if not centuries has been to conflate non-Sunni (though most directly Shia and Kurdish) culture with terrorism, and again nuance is necessary because that hatred is not without basis, but the way these archaic Sunni monarchies have become intertwined with capitalism and the west is the foremost vehicle by which US intervention has been globally normalized and celebrated. And it's nazi-level fucked up.

    I think it is worthwhile to mention that it's important to not connect current Russio-phobia with McCarthyism. Putin is a capitalist twat like any other and he'd be pinky grabbing Obama and W on the guillotine platform if I had last say. The way liberals are trying to scream "Fuck reds" while also screaming "America has always been great" just doesn't work. People know when they're being lied to on such grandiose scales. They may choose to ignore it because petite-bourgeois thought is what it is, but the recognition is still there and disillusion with the democratic party is a prime example of this.

    Long story short, the goal of any action in MENA should be to not only fully destroy da'ish, but more importantly create a foundation upon which sectarian nuance can coexist with intersectional culture and progressive sociological concepts and the reality of the overwhelmingly vast majority of US actions has been and continues to be in stark contrast of that goal and more so in opposition to it by way of its extremist Sunni allies.
     
  24. armistice

    Captain Vietnam: Bestower of Tumors

    The Baathist insurgency called; they want their western pr war back. Or it was lost in translation and the CIA exist only to topple states not headed by US puppets when capital interests are in play. Your guess is as good as mine. :chin:
     
    Wharf Rat likes this.
  25. skogsraet

    Trusted Supporter

    Yeah, I totally get that, I meant "why is this bad" in reference to this post lol

    My confusion is mostly surrounding the different factions involved on the ground, like when shit's going down I want to be able to understand who is doing what, but I've only really been following it the past year and with the amount of players involved and the length of the war I just always feel like I'm either missing something or misunderstanding