Oscars 2025 • Page 12

Conclave is absolutely still in play. It’s going to do very well on the preferential ballot in a fragmented year. I’m not totally willing to count out Wicked yet either, though that’s a longer shot.

My feeling right now is that we’re staring down a Picture/Director split where The Brutalist wins director but something else scoops Picture. My gut still says Anora, though I wouldn’t be shocked with a Conclave or Complete Unknown win.

 

id be blown away if wicked gets anything above the line

 

Nickel Boys should win best picture but it won’t.

 

yes

 

The only reason I’m not counting it out yet is that it did so well with SAG nominations. Clearly a lot of love for it from the actors. Also, if the stink around Emilia Perez continues to grow, Ariana would be the supporting actress spoiler.

 

I said it before but like…are you guys just listening to a podcast/reading tweets and then regurgitating their takes like you’re on the inner circle of the academy? It is such a weird way to go about Oscar season. You’re confident because you heard some other guy be confident??

 

my take is i've only seen a handful of the nominees and therefore those films should win

 

More or less what I'm saying. I'm not confident about any of the major categories other than, like, Supporting Actor.

 

based on the other categories, i don’t think it has widespread support in the other branches enough to really reflect that. the down the middle non offensive choice would be a complete unknown

50% brutalist, 25 emilia perez, 15 a complete unknown, 10 anora

 

if anyone would spoil supporting actress it’s monica barbaro

 

I mean, it got 8 nominations, that's not nothing! More than what Spotlight won with, which I think is probably the closest parallel from the last decade.

 

i guess it wouldn’t be unprecedented but the lack of a directing nomination and especially with mangold getting in seems unlikely. idk. it did get in for editing which is usually the best predictor

 

Yeah, it missing in director is definitely its biggest issue. But like you said, not unprecedented. Neither Argo nor CODA had director noms, and those were both similarly odd Oscar years without super strong frontrunners.

 

Saldana being in supporting is almost as weird.

 

not the first time this has happened, Viola Davis won best actress and best supporting actress for the same role

 

It ends up robbing the actual "support". Culkin isn't supporting either.

 

hilarious. she still seems to be a part of other FYC materials via Netflix's awards site, but i wouldn't be surprised if it's just Zoe (and a few shots of Selena as shown in this poster) with any new, wider-distributed materials going forward.

 

Lol they're not going to let her campaign

 

I wonder if she'll even be at the ceremony now.

 

She should break in like Lydia Tar.

 

holy shit, i didn't even realize this until the article pointed it out, but even the FYC materials (like the poster shared yesterday) are excluding the title of the movie to distance themselves from the situation with Karla. the campaign is cooked.

 

Yeah, that movie ain't winning. I'll be curious if Saldana can still salvage Best Supporting Actress.