NFL Season 2020 Football • Page 1262

The week before last year’s NFL trade deadline, Bill O’Brien made one of his worst moves as the leader of the Texans’ front office.

Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett had shredded the Texans in a Week 7 game as Houston shuffled through defensive backs because of injuries, so the next day, O’Brien dealt a third-round pick for cornerback Gareon Conley. A former first-round selection of the Raiders, Conley played well in eight games with the Texans, but the team declined his fifth-year option, making the 2020 season a contract year — and things have since gone downhill.

After undergoing offseason ankle surgery, Conley began this season on IR, and interim head coach Romeo Crennel said Monday that he isn’t close to returning.

So in retrospect, the Conley trade represents the exact team-building strategy that helped get O’Brien fired: mortgaging the future for a present that isn’t worthwhile.

Because the Texans allowed one man to manage their short- and long-term plans, they’re approaching this year’s Nov. 3 trade deadline in a much different position than the one they were in a season ago. At 1-5 and hurting for draft picks, the Texans should be sellers.

But how many tradable assets does Houston have?

Here are five trades the Texans could make before the deadline. All contract data is from Over The Cap.

WR Will Fuller to the New England Patriots
Texans get: 2021 third-round pick, plus a conditional fifth-round pick tied to Fuller’s availability during the remainder of the season

Patriots get: Fuller

The same mix of talent and injury concerns that made Fuller just the third receiver ever to play on his fifth-year option without a contract extension also makes him a difficult player to move at the deadline.

Fuller, 26, is yet to miss a game this season and is on pace for a career year, but durability issues still hang over him — and any team that considers acquiring him.

Should Fuller stay healthy and continue to play as he has, Jason Fitzgerald, founder of Over The Cap, projects he’d be unaffected by the pandemic in free agency and earn a deal in the $15 million per year range. Such a contract would net the Texans a third-round comp pick in 2022, making a third-rounder the minimum return in any Fuller deal at the deadline. But how much more than that would a team be willing to give up for a half-season rental of an injury-prone player?

“It depends on how desperate you are for a receiver,” Fitzgerald said. “Would you think of franchise tagging him? I guess that would come into play, too, (as well as) if you thought you could do an extension with him.”

Interim general manager Jack Easterby could push to add a conditional pick tied to how many games Fuller plays for his new team.

If Fuller doesn’t play enough for the conditional pick to kick in, then Easterby can be happy to have at least locked down a third-rounder, which the Texans might not get as a comp pick if they hold onto Fuller and he deals with injuries during the second half of the season.

Plus, the third-rounder the Texans acquire from New England here is in 2021, when the Texans are hurting for draft capital, rather than in 2022, when any Fuller comp pick would arrive. Houston is scheduled to have first- and second-round selections in the latter year, but not the former.

Easterby might ultimately prefer to be conservative while operating in his interim role. He could hold onto Fuller, see what he potentially does in a healthy season with Deshaun Watson and give the next Texans GM an inside track at retaining him. But the Texans are set to have Randall Cobb count for $10.6 million against the cap next season, much of it guaranteed. Even if Brandin Cooks’ $12 million cap hit in 2021 drops with a restructured contract, signing Fuller to a long-term extension in the $15 million per year range looks like a luxury for this team during an offseason in which the cap will shrink.

WR Kenny Stills to the Green Bay Packers
Texans get: 2021 sixth-round pick

Packers get: Stills

Carrying a $7 million cap hit, Stills entered this season as an expensive insurance policy in the event Fuller dealt with more injuries or Cooks absorbed another concussion. But neither has happened through six games, so Stills, 28, has had one of the least productive seasons of his eight-year career.

It’s possible injuries eventually challenge the Texans’ receiver depth, but given the team’s record, adding draft picks should be more important than maintaining quality receiver play to stay competitive. The latter is what the Packers, a NFC contender hurting for receivers, should focus on.

As a half-season rental, Stills probably wouldn’t net the Texans much, but there’s no guarantee whatever comp pick Houston gets if Stills walks in free agency would be much better than a sixth-rounder. Stills is the type of mid-tier veteran who could get squeezed in free agency because of the pandemic.

If the Texans trade Fuller, they might not look to deal Stills as well, though. Parting ways with both of them would leave them thin at receiver for the rest of the season. Rookie receiver Isaiah Coulter’s 21-day window to return from IR has been activated, but Crennel has indicated his coaching staff isn’t ready to trust first-year players.

TE Darren Fells to the Buffalo Bills
Texans get: 2021 fifth-round pick

Bills get: Fells, 2021 seventh-round pick

Four Buffalo tight ends have combined for just 14 catches for 138 yards and four touchdowns. Fells alone has made 14 catches for 205 yards and three scores while averaging 10.8 yards per target — yet he was getting out-snapped during the season’s first four weeks by Jordan Akins, who was having a breakout third year in Houston before an ankle injury and a concussion sidelined him.

Both Akins and Fells are under contract through next season, but the former is 28 and still on his rookie deal. Fells is 34 and could look to retire when his current contract expires, meaning the Texans wouldn’t net a comp pick for him.

In the short term, trading Fells would allow the Texans to get an extended look at younger options at the position. Pharaoh Brown, who was elevated from the practice squad in Week 3, has played more than 40 percent of the offensive snaps in each of the past two games, catching three passes for 32 yards. And 2019 third-round pick Kahale Warring is still eligible to return from IR.

RB Duke Johnson to the Chicago Bears
Texans get: 2021 seventh-round pick, with the potential to become a sixth-rounder based on Johnson’s usage the remainder of the season

Bears get: Johnson

The Texans traded a third-round pick to acquire Johnson last year, but they hardly use him. He’s received just 5.5 touches per game, which barely edges out his average in 2018, his last year with the Browns before he was traded to Houston.

The Bears, who have used David Montgomery in the passing game more frequently since Tarik Cohen tore an ACL in Week 3, could potentially give Johnson a larger role. But Chicago also has former Texans back Lamar Miller on its practice squad while he works his way back from an ACL tear of his own.

Trading Johnson would clear $5.15 million off of the Texans’ 2021 books, which is valuable for a team slated to be about $15 million over the cap. If the Texans also cut David Johnson, clearing another $6.9 million in cap space, they could start over at running back, a position at which there are plenty of cheaper options.

DE J.J. Watt to the New Orleans Saints
Texans get: 2021 first-round pick, DL Sheldon Rankins

Saints get: Watt

The Saints are always aggressive, especially now, as they try to win a Super Bowl in what might be Drew Brees’ last season. So why not go after Watt, who is under contract next year with a $17.5 million cap hit but no guaranteed money remaining? Though not quite elite anymore, Watt is still a productive player, and he could boost a New Orleans team that’s elite against the run but ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA.


Including Rankins in this deal helps New Orleans fit Watt into its finances for this season while giving the Texans a closer look at a former first-round pick who’s been a disruptive defensive lineman in the past. Rankins, who is playing on his fifth-year option and is a free agent after this season, looked like a rising star in 2018, when he recorded 15 QB hits, including eight sacks. But a torn left Achilles ended that season for him, then he dealt with a bone spur issue in his ankle in 2019, requiring another season-ending surgery after 10 games.

Even though the Texans could really use the Saints’ 2021 first-round pick — which would represent good value for Watt at this stage in his career, making this a deal Houston would need to seriously consider — the trade might be a hard sell for Texans fans and team owner Cal McNair. Rather than let Easterby trade the face of the franchise, would McNair prefer to hold onto Watt and leave the decision up to the next GM in the offseason? Dealing Watt now would be oddly unceremonious for a player of his caliber.

What Watt wants could factor in here, too. He’s looked miserable during his postgame Zooms after losses, and next season could very well be a transition year for the Texans. Would he like to stick with the franchise through that and finish his career here, or go chase a Super Bowl?

What about Brandin Cooks?
Cooks’ contract, which lasts through 2023 but carries no guaranteed money past this year, is part of what attracted the Texans to him, and it seemingly makes him a tradeable asset yet again, especially given his improved play of late.

But Easterby, who met Cooks when they overlapped in New England in 2017, identified him as a good culture fit and pushed to trade for him, so it’s unlikely he’d move on so quickly. Plus, after giving up a second-round pick for Cooks, the Texans could have a hard time finding equal value on the trade market.

 

Duke Johnson to Chicago omg lol. Yeah that's just what Chicago needs. Another RB who is only useful as a receiver until he gets touched.

 

Thanks

I’m fine with all those trades besides duke johnson

keep him to pair with a bell cow RB

 

like David Johnson

 

a good one I meant

Tim Kelly utilizes receiving backs terribly

 

but really if they do trade him that's okay, its whatever

I'd like to see the new GM do the painful thing and dump as many contracts as possible this offseason... next year is a wash.. get out from every contract you can.. the only guys I care about long term right now are Deshaun, Tunsil, Reid, Howard, Blacklock, Lonnie, Roby, Cunningham... the roster is thin.

 

I feel bad for Fitz, but at the same point he had to have known this was coming. Maybe not this week, but I mean come on

 

I'd like to see audio/video of Fitz saying that because he 100% could have been being sarcastic

 

I thought so at first too, but it doesn't seem like he was in a joking mood (I know this isn't that exact comment). Most of the Dolphins beat writers are saying the same thing.

 

I mean both things can be true, he knows Tua is the future but he can also be upset about the timing of it.

It's been a pretty typical Fitz year with ups and downs, but in other years where he's been benched those teams really sucked ass and had a losing record, the Dolphins are playing better than anyone was expecting and he probably feels he deserves some of the credit

 

The dolphins could always trade him for josh mccown or something

 

just go away already man

 

Yikes

If I were Derek Carr I would not play if they all get ruled out

 

I gotta hammer the Bucs now.

 

NFL Gameday Week 7 • forum.chorus.fm

 

Trevor Lawrence is not going to be Trevor Lawrwnce on the Jets

 

Shut up Murph let me have this

 

Cowboys should trade Dalton for Fitzpatrick lol

 

Even fake trades hand the Pats a gift. If a 32yr old DE whose had 3 of his last 4 seasons end in injury is worth a 1st rounder, then a 26yr old field stretching WR is worth a LOOOOOOOT more.

 

I do like Rankins. And the Saints love spending 1sts on DEs they shouldnt

 

Man, I finally have fantasy studs this season with CEH and DK Metcalf. Now these former Steeler assholes decide to cut into their value. Fuck Leveon and fuck AB.