NFL Gameday Week 4 • Page 22

I think going through every stat with a fine-toothed comb looking for the precise reason is kinda silly. It's an incompletion. No one died. QBs will be fine lol.

 

Yeah to the people the stats matter to they’re going to be looking into the advanced stats/actual game tape anyways to determine who’s fault it is

 

True, stats usually all regress to the mean, so it’s all good.

I don’t even know if that’s the right saying for this situation but y’all know what I mean, haha

 

It is!

 

Today I used my elementary statistics class in a real life situation kinda

 

Idk, regress to the mean always meant like "come back down to earth" but incompletions and interceptions are negatives so "regress" seems like the opposite direction.

 

as we all know, it's not one person that makes or break a team, but when a franchise hires an OFFENSIVE coach who's previous QB threw a whopping ELEVEN touchdown passes all year... yeah idk what they thought they potentially saw. i get wanting to be ahead of the curve and whatnot and maybe take a chance, but that seems like a major red flag

things can still be fixed / improved and if Adams is playing the last drive maybe the Packers win blah blah blah but LaFleur seems very hot and cold with what happens in a game. they have like, 2-3 great drives and then everyone on offense seems to disappear.

note: i said this at the time of him being hired and poked some good fun at the Packers hiring an offensive coach from Tennessee because when have they ever been exciting or original or smart on offense?

 

It really means "absolute regressing" from an extreme to the average, so while it's being called regression it could be in either direction, just closer to the mean in general

 

Some people used "revert to mean" instead

 

I'm here for professor dustin. Ready to learn.

 

Me: *takes 1 intro class and statsplains the thread*

 

You ever get so behind on laundry that you wear a Christmas sweater in September

 

No but i've definitely bought new socks and underwear instead of doing laundry.

 

The only time I’m bothered by the stats of interceptions that aren’t the QB’s fault is fantasy football

 

last night was gud

 

The NFL in 4K HDR gets off to a rocky start on Fox Sports

Was bummed Xfinity pulled it but shouldn’t be surprised.

 

This was a nice two posts

 

You should see the sweater

 

? Why not?

It’s not an accuracy percentage, that’s the most important thing to understand. It is a COMPLETION percentage. It really actually doesn’t mean that much when players like Bridgewater throw 70% but it’s almost all 3 yard passes. You’re not necessarily being “docked” when your completion percentage goes down due to a throwaway - sometimes it wasn’t possible to complete a pass on that play, which is why there’s a limit and completion percentages over 70-75% are rare.

Sometimes vertical offenses demand that you challenge the defense downfield and attempt lower probability passes more often. Sometimes players just have to do that because their coaches call shitty gameflow and get them into third and longs repeatedly. It’s a highly context - sensitive stat. (Like yards per carry for runningbacks.)

It means a whole lot more when you compare completion percentage vs yards per attempt, or completion percentage vs blitzes, or completion percentage versus 7 men in zone etc cause then you at least have a reference point for how hard it was to complete a pass in that context. I’d take 55% and 9 yards per attempt over 68% and 5 yards per attempt any day.

 

I like this idea as well.

In general, I don’t mind the way stats are because they’re more realistic if there’s not an actual expectation that a QB will throw 0 INTs for a season or 100% completion for a game, but rather, when we study the variance from the average QB’s numbers.

Anything can happen in football to any player no matter how good they are. But I’d rather count it than not count it, because it still paints an accurate picture how much each QB is capable of avoiding adversity and bad luck situations in the first place.

When Rodgers goes 33-7 I don’t think “aww some of those INTs weren’t his fault that’s not fair.” I automatically think “well that’s just unavoidable to have at LEAST 7, it’s crazy he’s under that much pressure and throwing 8-9 yards per attempt and 45 passes per game... but still has only 7 INTs when most QBs throw at least 10 and still is top 10 in completion percentage”

 

I’m very worried about the Colts this week vs Oakland. Feels like one of those stupid games that they’d lose. No Leonard and Hooker, Hilton doubtful, and Desir and Sheard questionable feels like a recipe for disaster against a mediocre team

 

Subbin

 

Go Raiders

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