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It’s Time to Hunker Down

Discussion in 'Article Discussion' started by Melody Bot, Nov 16, 2020.

  1. Melody Bot

    Your friendly little forum bot. Staff Member

    This article has been imported from chorus.fm for discussion. All of the forum rules still apply.

    Zeynep Tufekci, writing at The Atlantic, first with the good news:

    The end may be near for the pestilence that has haunted the world this year. Good news is arriving on almost every front: treatments, vaccines, and our understanding of this coronavirus.

    Pfizer and BioNTech have announced a stunning success rate in their early Phase 3 vaccine trials—if it holds up, it will be a game changer. Treatments have gotten better too. A monoclonal antibody drug—similar to what President Donald Trump and former Governor Chris Christie received—just earned emergency-use authorization from the FDA. Dexamethasone—a cheap, generic corticosteroid—cut the death rate by a third for severe COVID-19 cases in a clinical trial.

    Doctors and nurses have much more expertise in managing cases, even in using nonmedical interventions like proning, which can improve patients’ breathing capacity simply by positioning them facedown. Health-care workers are also practicing fortified infection-control protocols, including universal masking in medical settings.

    Our testing capacity has greatly expanded, and people are getting their results much more quickly. We may soon get cheaper, saliva-based rapid tests that people can administer on their own, itself a potential game changer.

    And then with the kicker:

    The best way to prepare would have been to enter this phase with as few cases as possible. In exponential processes like epidemics, the baseline matters a great deal. Once the numbers are this large, it’s very easy for them to get much larger, very quickly — and they will. When we start with half a million confirmed cases a week, as we had in mid-October, it’s like a runaway train. Only a few weeks later, we are already at about 1 million cases a week, with no sign of slowing down.

    Americans are reporting higher numbers of contacts compared with the spring, probably because of quarantine fatigue and confusing guidance. It’s hard to keep up a restricted life. But what we’re facing now isn’t forever.

    It’s time to buckle up and lock ourselves down again, and to do so with fresh vigilance. Remember: We are barely nine or 10 months into this pandemic, and we have not experienced a full-blown fall or winter season. Everything that we may have done somewhat cautiously — and gotten away with — in summer may carry a higher risk now, because the conditions are different and the case baseline is much higher.

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  2. Yellowcard2006

    Trusted

    I am both excited and terrified.
     
    falafelmywaffle and Brent like this.
  3. fredwordsmith

    Trusted Supporter

    I've resigned myself to the selfishness of Americans making this something we live with for years. At least until it kills enough holdouts that their numbers don't matter anymore. I can only hope it just kills them.

    I've been distancing since March 11th. Granted, I can do that easily. I already worked remotely, and my wife easily adjusted. Our kids go to a great school that put together a remote school package by the end of that month that we continue to this day; we never seriously considered sending them back to school because we could afford to tag team education during the day. That is not a reality for 99% of people.

    Until the government pays people to stay home and businesses to survive, we're gonna be fucked. Super fucked. People have to get out to work and to live; why stay home if there's no incentive to do so?

    Those of you who live in red states where this is still a problem, get in the ear of your city hall, your council members, people at the local level. Calling Senators is a fool's errand at this point - everyone is inflexible to the degree they're in their party and they agree with the doctrine that their party believes. Change is only going to happen at the local spectrum, and if enough folks who have been holdouts get on the fucking train, we might have a shot at living normal lives before the end of 2021. Maybe.

    I'm not optimistic. We shut down a fair portion of the country in March, when 247 people had the virus. Now we have 1000x that may people who have died from it, and we don't bat an eye. This is the price of living in a failed state, with people who don't believe in government. This is the end result of 40 years of failed policies and hollowing out of every good function a shared society has. Every member of the GOP AND every corporatist Dem who believes the free market is the answer is part of the same disease that is murdering us in broad daylight, and we should eradicate them from every office from POTUS to dogcatcher and make them ashamed of their stances until there is no more breath in their lungs.

    My dad is a physician. Their podunk Midwest hospital in BFE is overrun with COVID cases. Four people died in a single day yesterday. They used to count months without having a hospital casualty, and now it's happening hourly. How long can our providers hold up a system that was already broken? How long until they break themselves? How long until so many of THEM die that there are no caregivers for COVID or every other thing that is slaughtering Americans (heart disease, cancer, labor and delivery) and we're just a nation of people with wooden planks to bite on and bonesaws to deal with the pain? How close are we to that point already?

    I have young kids. I am grateful for the time with them. I am furious that their grandparents, who are otherwise healthy and full of love, cannot see them through milestones - birthdays, holidays, lost teeth, movie nights, childhood rights of passage that should be shared with those you care about most and are now done on a fucking Zoom. What will that do to my children, who, again, have it better than most? What does it do to the kids without a safety net, two parents, a stable structure? How does that affect the person they would have become? Why are we failing our future selves?

    I will never forgive those in charge who let this happen. Those in our government, at all levels, who are content to let the people on the ground soldier on and accept any losses as collateral damage because their lives have not changed one iota. The collective blood of the dead is on all their hands, and they should never know a moment's peace as long as they live, until the God I hope exists sends them straight to hell to be destroyed over and over by the ghosts of the people they thought weren't important enough to live.

    I am so tired, and sad, and I just don't see when or how this gets better until the right people leave office or die. I'll take either one.
     
  4. Eml182

    Regular

    It’s very easy to say Donald Trump failed this on all fronts, but when you dissect the rationale it’s even more frustrating.

    If you are going to tout vaccine progress and bank on the vaccine, then you embrace masks and distancing UNTIL you get a vaccine because it will limit the number of deaths. He wanted to keep places open, so if he continues, then champion masks like you champion yourself, which is all the f’ing time.

    Instead, he politicized masks. It’s inconsistent with vaccine promotion as it assumes there is not an alternative to accepting 200K+ deaths.

    There is zero good rationale or explanation for his approach to this. It’s all about him and we should all remain extremely vigilent the next 2 months.