General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 891

He's running.

 

It's like you didn't even read the piece you've spent the morning criticizing:

Read it. It's good.

 

Of course this is your take away not that Biden's a fucking idiot for saying it

 

No it was a dumb thing to say, that was my point. He’ll be beat over the head with it over and over again when the changes to people’s insurance happen regardless. Just such a dumb unforced error.

 

I did. It still doesn’t convince me that those voters will 1. Show up in 2020 and 2. Swing to Trump enough to increase his margin with WWC voters by 4%

 

You didn't read it if that's what you're saying.

It's not an increase, it's the voters from 2016 that voted for Trump, voting for him again:

At the same time, the president’s white working-class supporters from 2016 were relatively likely to stay home. Voters like these are likeliest to return to the electorate in 2020, and it could set back Democrats in crucial battleground states.

I said if there's even a slight wwc or non-college educated white voter increase from the 2018 mid-terms, which would put it closer to 2016 numbers, in very specific states, then he wins the EC pretty easily.

Again:

After accounting for the differences between the battlegrounds and the country, the Republicans held a narrow turnout advantage on a national scale. The fundamental turnout shifts were similar, but the lower turnout among nonwhite voters hurt the Democrats more nationwide than it did in the relatively white battleground districts. [...] The voters who turned out in 2016, but stayed home in 2018, were relatively favorable to Mr. Trump, and they’re presumably more likely to join the electorate than those who turned out in neither election. In a high-turnout election, these Trump supporters could turn out at a higher rate than the more Democratic group of voters who didn’t vote in either election, potentially shifting the electorate toward the president.

And the conclusion:

The danger for Democrats is that higher turnout would do little to help them in the Electoral College if it did not improve their position in the crucial Midwestern battlegrounds. Higher turnout could even help the president there, where an outsize number of white working-class voters who back the president stayed home in 2018, potentially creating a larger split between the national vote and the Electoral College in 2020 than in 2016.

 

Lol the Rampart press briefing

 

Yeah, but G. Elliot Morris specifically said Trump would have to increase his margin with WWC voters by 4% to close the gap in turnout of dem voters in 2018. That is entirely dependent on both the turnout of WWC voters increasing back to, at minimum 2016 levels, and the Dem turnout of certain demos not increasing at all from 2018 to 2020, a presidential election in which they’ll be extremely motivated.

I think both of those are unlikely to happen given what we know right now about the economic situation of these WWC voters, and the usual attrition in support that unpopular incumbents see. Obama lost a LOT of support between 2008 and 2012, but his cushion was so ridiculously big that it didn’t matter. Trump’s cushion is less than 80K votes. And that’s assuming he wins every single state/ECV he won outside of the Blue Wall, which is definitely not a given (AZ, GA, Maine and Nebraska districts, Florida, NC all possible to flip)

 

Cryptocurrency week is going as well as infrastructure week, I see.

 

Lol.

Seriously Bullock, drop out and run against this guy please

 

Pete outpolling Bernie in NH yikes

 

Bernie carried NH in 2016, what's going on there

 

No, that's not what he was saying:

He's saying that a general election turnout closer to 2016 would have a margin increase with non-college whites, and if that's ~4%, which is pretty easy to see looking at 2016/2018, then they win. In 2010, Republicans won non-college educated white by 30 points. In 2018, the GOP won that same group by 24. Going back to the margin in 2016, is enough for that 4% swing that he's talking about.

You can read the whole piece here: https://medium.economist.com/would-...t-if-all-americans-actually-voted-95c4f960798

That they still support Trump by large margins in the states needed to win?

This is comically incorrect.

 

Occams razor is: more choice.

 

HRC much more unlikable than Biden, Kamala, Pete, etc. but you’d figure his name rec alone there would still be able to carry him

 

Is Bernie leading the polls in any early states right now?

 

Yeah it would suck if the president was on a human trafficking plane

 

Nope.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Not a lot of polling though in quite a few states.

 

“Change research” who I really know nothing about had him in the lead in NH last week. They also had one with Warren #1 and him two

 

Ratio

 

Wow I definitely thought the debates were this week, guess I’ve been mixing up the drawing for the lineups for both nights. Boo.

On the upside, if the Mueller hearing is delayed until next week, it’ll be closer to the debates.

 

I’m thinking (and hoping) a lot of candidates will drop out in the weeks after the debate when they see that they are still polling at 0-1%