2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0: One Last Run Before The Professionals Fuck it All Up • Page 17

@Dinkleberg come end this madness lol

 

No, Gabe Davis has red flags NOW, like the fact he only shows tf up in 4 games a year

 

Or the fact that he costs almost as much as Kirk from an AAV standpoint but is nowhere near as good

 

Or the fact that he’s only a vertical sideline threat

 

Or the fact that the fanbase of the team he had “7 touchdowns a year” on hates him

from everything I can tell they’re sick of the Bills forcing a highly inconsistent and limited receiver the ball

 

Okay, I hate the Gabe Davis signing as much as you, but there is a fundamental difference between the Bills, a team primed for a Super Bowl run, depending on Gave Davis developing into Target #2 behind Diggs, vs. the Jags just trying to be a playoff team depending on him being Target #3/4. He sucks, but he sucks less for the Jags than he does for the Bills.

 

Gabe Davis IS the number 2 unless we get an AD Mitchell or better this draft lmao that’s why I’m so militant about this

 

Well, that's not why you're so militant about it, but regardless lol

He's WR 2, but I would imagine the majority of the time, Trev is looking to Engram or ETN before he ever gets to Gabe.

 

They are right more often than blind gut feelings with little research and what I'm talking about is literally a historical trend with a near 0% hit rate. That's incredibly low odds.

68th in contested targets, 79th in contested target percentage
24th and 33rd among players with >16.5 yards per catch

The list of guys who tested highly athletically while producing only one good year in college is already pretty low - the best of them being Christian Watson and DJ Chark.

Among that list, Legette places...

6th in targets, 6th in receptions, 9th in touchdowns, 12th in touchdowns per reception, 12th in forced missed tackle rate, 5th in contested catch rate, 4th in contested targets and 5th in rate, 6th in first downs, 6th in first down rate, 9th in targeted QBR, 4th in yards, 9th in yards after catch, 7th in yards per reception, and 6th in yards per route run.

He was pretty good, but not very good I stand corrected.

He's the same height and weight as Terrion Arnold, same hands, half an inch smaller wingspan, .01 second slower 40 time, .1 faster shuttle, .07 faster 3-cone.

 

Okay so you are concerned with limited production on a team that passes the ball a lot is that what you're saying?

he's $5 cheaper than Kirk. he's getting Darnell Mooney and Allen Lazard money.

I'm confused are the forcing him the ball or is he not doing anything

 

@Dinkleberg birds

 

What I’m taking about doesn’t even happen that often. What you’re talking about lumps a lot of worse prospects than Legette in with him.

Out of how many college receivers? He had a good number of contested situations and won a high ratio of them. He wouldnt be known for that and it wouldn’t be talked about by every draft analyst I’ve read or watched this off-season otherwise. He also, again, made more 30+ yard catches than anyone else.

It’s not one of those things where 1 2 3 = the #1 2 and 3 talents. If he ends up like Watson, or Chark before his injury, that’s awesome. Both of those are (or in Charks case, were for a little while) on the WR1/2 borderline

Terrion has sustained production and ball production though. With Lassiter you’re really just projecting off one year of solid but not highly productive coverage snaps. The lack of size and slowness concerns me more when he hasn’t shown he’s a dominant CB already in college

 

Just got out of work. I’m gonna drive home and make my pick within the next 30 minutes or so

 

In the NFL much more so than college.

Easily rather have Mooney. Easily rather save that money for something that actually addresses a problem better.

Incorrect binary. They are forcing him the ball in very specific situations because of his very limited skillset. I never said he’s “not doing anything” I’m saying he’s a one tricky pony whose production was vastly inflated by a top 3 QB who forced him the ball downfield a LOT with largely disappointing results

 

I’ve read/skimmed over much of this back and forth and have some thoughts I would also like to share about rookie expectations, but I will make my pick before I get to those

 

itysl

 

Really feels like there’s only one person in this whole forum who likes the Davis signing

which would be okay if you didn’t constantly try to convince me I’m wrong for not

 

Yes, because I'm applying context beyond just looking at what I'll generously assume is all-22 full games. What you're talking about is not rare. What is rare is a player like Legette working out. That's extremely rare.

Out of 366. Every drafted receiver in the last decade + 20 UDFAs and 58 prospects.

Okay so the bar is just low then. You're making it seem WAY higher.

Terrion had a marginally better year than Lassiter in 2022 and didn't play all in 2021.

 

Because the people in college with that limited of production don't make it to the NFL.

Mooney would be on the bench. He plays Kirk's role.

He didn't force the ball to him much at all. Josh Allen doesn't do that. Stefon Diggs literally had a meltdown the entire season because of it. His limited skillset was something we were missing - a run blocking vertical threat.

 

I didn't even like it lol. I'm just being objective.

Also, you doom and gloom and act dramatic over him. Morgan and David hate the signing too but aren't dramatic about it.

 

all 22 straight up is more informative about players than advanced analytics in college. Wayyyyyy too much variance on absolutely everything to numerically measure things equally. If it was really possible to do the latter then Ladd McConkey would not be a good prospect cause he was not productive at all for a college receiver. If we’re talking about win rate and stuff like that that’s one thing but right now you’re just punching college production stats in and ignoring a ton of context such as Air Raid offenses vs offenses that barely fuckin pass

Final season or whole career? And that’s still pretty good considering a lot of drafted receivers panned out well

Bar’s higher than Gabe Davis lol

average of 50 yards per game and a good chance of touchdown in each game would be excellent for a WR3 you’re hoping becomes a WR2


Terrion had a marginally better year than Lassiter in 2022 and didn't play all in 2021.[/QUOTE]

 

You guys have a thread for this stuff lol

 

again, Ladd McConkey has less production in two years than Xavier Legette has in one. Run heavy offenses / teams that target their TE like Bowers / teams that recruit a surplus of weapons and then end up benching good ones cause they have too many, cripple your entire point

fair. Still don’t think Gabe is good lol

I don’t want a guy who is ONLY a vertical threat. There’s not really much of a place for players like that in the modern NFL. Look at MVS. KC hardly threw to the guy. Allen is the best deep ball thrower in the league… and even he couldn’t get Davis to better than milquetoast numbers

 

It’s not just over him. It’s over us failing to get Trevor Lawrence a #1 receiver for 3 years and then that’s our big answer to letting Ridley walk. Pathetic.

 

I know it is. I said I was being generous in assuming that you went out and found all of that. Ladd was decently productive and very efficient actually. I'm not ignoring the context of the offenses they were in. Texas passed at the 38th highest rate last year. As much as USC. South Carolina passes in the same range. The volume was there.

Final season. And that's pretty okay. It's not outstanding like you're saying. Not many people on that list panned out. Not that many period truly pan out too.

Evidently the bar isn't that much higher considering Gabe averages 49 over the last two seasons.