2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0: One Last Run Before The Professionals Fuck it All Up • Page 16

At worst Adonai Mitchell is an okay WR2 and at worst Legette is a wildcard weapon who’s capable of average WR3 numbers on athleticism alone. That’s not a low floor. I don’t have any serious concerns about either of them being able to contribute to a football team. The question is how much, but both have a high ceiling and an acceptable floor imo.

 

You just can’t guarantee that though

 

They took Puka toward the end of round 5, I think it’s safe to say he’s not an example of the NFL knowing anything either haha. If the NFL knew he would’ve went top 5. Some guys just slip through the cracks. Does not mean we can’t have valid projections of some players even if we’re wrong about others. The best GMs are still only right about a player like 60% of the time

 

I've said it before but I think Adonai is extremely boom or bust, even moreso beyond the eye test

He'll need the right system and some nurturing, just my two cents

 

If Adonai’s production makes him boom or bust then so does Ladd McConkey’s. You can’t always tell how good a player is by how much a team used him. I think both of those WRs are better than Brian Thomas whose college production dwarves theirs

 

boom or bust deez

 

What you can measure is what he did with the targets he did receive. 17 yards per catch is a high number for still having decent volume and both Legette and Mitchell averaged around this range. Legette actually had the most catches of 30+ yards in college football last season while Mitchell had 47 first downs and 11 touchdowns in like 60 catches lol. Both were also contested catch winners- not as much as Odunze but in the next tier.

 

Literally the players being suggested instead also were only good for one year. I really question how Lassiter’s college career is legit but Legette’s isn’t

 

I looked it up because I'm just that kinda guy.

18 rookie receivers who have gone over 1,000 yards since 2000 out of 1,300+ rookie receivers drafted. That's 1.3%.

 

Only 4.6% of receivers have totaled 600+ yards.

 

Even if you wanna limit to those drafted in rounds 1/2 and assume 100% of those that hit those milestones were drafted in there (not looking that up at this time) you're still looking at

18/225 - 8% > 1,000
60/225 - 26.67% > 600 yards.

So yes, it is possible, but to have two rookies combine for even the more conservative 1,400 yards Randall proposed would be a very very special rookie season. This is my TED Talk

 

I might draft you because of this post

 

Packers select:

Cooper Beebe - Offensive Guard - Kansas State

 

I simply refuse to believe this.

Again, as I have said, I like Legette.

And behind those guys they had guys who currently cannot crack the starting roster for the Jets, Patriots, and Falcons. Their ROOM was very bad.

AT WORST? No lol. At worst AD is as bad as all the other people with production that low. And at worst Legette is Laviska Shenault.

Yes, Ladd has concerns as well. That's why he's going in the 2nd round for most people. AD is being talked about like he's only a little below the big three, that's a difference. Also, you can almost always tell how good a player is by how much the team used him. That's just a fact. In the last decade there have been two good players to come out of college with a sub-2 yards per route run. One of them was a hall of fame level athlete and the other was 1 of 1 when it came to making the most of those opportunities. It's absolutely a concern for AD, even if we can justify it some.

Mitchell had 15.4 yards per catch which is average to below average. 17 per catch on its own doesn't do much for me when it's the same number as Antonio Gandy Golden and Quentin Johnston.

Now 1st down percentage is very good to look at and one of the big reasons I'm still in on AD. Both per target and per reception are top 35 in the last decade and the company around him is more predictive than yards per reception.

Legette is 23 years old and it took him five years to top 170 yards despite SC having the opportunity for him to do so. Lassiter is two years younger and was also very good last year on top of coming from a program with strict seniority standards that almost always keeps younger players off the field.

 

Where am I at on your board now?

 

Again, I like both AD and Legette. There is an easy argument for AD succeeding and a decent one for Legette. There is just also objective red flags that you can't just pretend don't exist.

 

I appreciate your work @EntryLevelTank but I think this is also a special situation the Jags put themselves in where they would actually use a rookie receiver consistently because their existing talent is very milquetoast. A lot of that sample size of yours is players who were eased in slowly by design and the numbers probably jump when you look at who was productive by year 2

 

how many were 3rd on the team in targets

 

The same red flags exist about Gabe Davis and you’re ignoring those. Christian Kirk still only has one season of performance so far in his career that is worth his contract. Evan Engram should not be your most proven option lol

 

Of the 225 sample size, 94 were first rounders. 33 of them were top-10 picks. I'm sorry but the Jaguars aren't going to be any more aggressive in playing AD Mitchell or Legette than those 94 or those 33 teams.

What's gonna happen is they're gonna have growing pains because they're rookies, and you're gonna HATE Press Taylor's usage of them haha

 

Again, I support the picks themselves. I'm just saying "Cool, there's a bonus 1,400 yards" is silly. They're still Rookies who need to learn the NFL, and a new system, and develop chemistry with Lawrence etc etc etc etc etc.

 

...Gabe Davis isn't a prospect. And no, they absolutely did NOT exist. But even if they did - Davis went in the 4th round.

 

It'd be like me saying "Cool, we have Drake Maye, we're gucci because the Texans were." as opposed to acknowledging the rare shouldn't be the expected.

 

They can't all be supreme route running technicians with immediate chemistry with their rookie class QB counterpart

iykyk

 

but still had a lead weapon taking the press coverage and taking pressure off

Kirk is not capable of that. Kirk needs someone else to open HIM up.

You can’t use one metric to compare entirely different talents with entirely different stories. This is one of the things I dislike most about analytics during draft season. Especially because they aren’t even right more often than a gut feeling.

I don’t have Adonai close to Odunze. I traded down from 17 instead of trading up to 10 to select him. So, please try not to mix Twitter discourse with me discourse, which you do quite often. The arguments you make ad nauseum on that site have nothing to do with me.

17 per catch in high volume against a lot of contested catch situations though

how was QJ in these situations compared to Legette? Let’s do that one next

When you frame it that way you ignore the fact that his 1255 yard final season was WAY more impressive than these other workout warrior prospects you speak of

Lassiter was not good last year. He also has extremely borderline athleticism and size that is a huge red flag to him playing outside.