2024 NFL Draft • Page 33

i've got some takes brewing

 

J.J. McCarthy 2nd overall

 

Is the take Nabers WR1 for you?

I’ve seen a few people say it and I couldn’t tell if it was just clickbait or a real discussion to be had

 

@whitenblue88

It's a fair question, but this would be my argument for thinking it's a developmental window tied to age (plus reps) and not NFL experience:

• There's no set "path" or "common denominator" for any of those guys outside of their age and the number of reps they got in college. Allen and Mahomes had huge questions coming out considering the scheme and level of competition. Burrow, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan stayed in college and hit their escalators while in school, making themselves first-overall-picks. Lamar was a CFB superstar and Heisman winner and was the 5th QB in his draft class. Herbert and Stroud were talents and productive college players, but didn't win as much as they should have and people held that against them. Big schools, small schools, transfers, early declarations, college transfers, high picks, low picks, etc..
• While I cherry-picked recent examples, I left QBs off the list like Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson (all 21)... it holds up for the last 25 years, so not just a recency trend.
• While there is some truth about better QB coaching happening earlier and earlier in a player's development, even taking this back 25 years or so, I think we've only shaved around a year off that escalation. So, hypothesized, in 2000 the escalation window was 23-26, which means Peyton Manning (22), Brees (22), Brady (22) and Roethlisberger (22) all fit that narrative.
• Finding exceptions is difficult. QBs that were drafted at 22/23 in the NFL are Burrow, Cam, Ryan (#1 overall picks), Russ, Tua, Tannehill, Mayfield, Carr, Wentz, Cousins, etc... most were QBs that came into the league with some warts, found varying levels of success but all could never really shake their fatal flaws throughout their career. Scouts had a better grasp of who they were, and their careers more or less were true to the scouting report. The better argument against this would be guys who came out of nowhere later in their careers; Kurt Warner as the prime example, but the exception kinda proves the rule in my mind (maybe that's confirmation bias as you suggest).
• Older prospects (23+) who get drafted generally don't improve all that much with NFL reps: Kenny Pickett, Joey Harrington, Chad Pennington, Akili Smith, Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden or Chris Weinke types. Kirk Cousins is probably the best example of an older QB coming into the league and developing... but his ceiling always felt capped.

Again, this isn't meant to be a magical prediction formula. Being under-age doesn't mean you're guaranteed to have big development or a huge jump in play: Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones or numerous other QBs prove otherwise, so you still need to rely on your scouting of the player. Being an older prospect doesn't mean you're not going to continue to refine and improve your game; Jared Goff is playing much better football at 28 than when he was 25. Development isn't linear and continued refinement of play is a real thing.

What this developmental age window is trying to predict is whether or not a quarterback has the capacity to take a massive forward leap in play from the time you draft them onward. Three years from now, which QB looks vastly different from where they are now? Josh Allen at 24 was unrecognizable to Josh Allen at 21. Pat Mahomes at 24 was a completely different player than the player at Texas Tech. At 20, Joe Burrow couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins at OSU, by 23, he had the best passing season in CFB history.

 

This article from the 2018 draft is a good read, especially with the benefit of hindsight.

 

hey @m9tt

stick around man, you know ball

seriously

 

Nabers is getting there. Right now my hot take is we're drooling over the wrong USC receiver

 

Whoa whoa hold on there’s a process here.

@m9tt - What team do you root for

 

Probably detroit

 

Was curious how the WRs look when only taking into account top defenses played. Some do uh, not look good - Jacob Cowing, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Worthy. Malik Washington is right there with Nabers, MHJ, and Rome. The one that stands out the most though is Malachi Corley. Not only does he hold up, his numbers are actually better lol.

 

I could absolutely see McDaniel pounding the table for Corley on day 2.

 

running levels 100% of the time with a 100% success rate.

 

I would consider using a late first on Malachi Corley

He’s an absolute animal

 

Cowing? How so?

 

the numbers would back you up.

 

The Streets Are Saying:

Predicted:

Preferred

 

I need to go and watch these games but against Top 50 defenses he only averaged 55 yards a game, which is in the bottom third of the draft, and his yards/route was fifth worst in the class. but i'm very curious about Cowing in particular cause he also saw the third highest targets per game across this sample so i'm wondering how much is the scheme vs. player.

 

Is the Utah game part of that?

As far as yards/per route, he catches a ton of screens and quick game stuff.

He was WR2 in that offense behind McMillan too.

 

Utah wasn't part of it no, they were right outside

Mississippi State, Washington, UCLA, and Oregon State.

 

will do!

I am a Lions fan... nothing sucks you into the NFL Draft like your team being bad and drafting poorly for (almost) your entire life.

 

He can stay