2024 NFL Draft • Page 32

I'm coming around on him tbh

 

JJ to pats please

 

Tua largest QB contract ever please

 

JJ feels like this year’s Will Levis or Malik Willis where people are going to blow out of proportion how high people are on him and then he’ll go on day 2

 

JJ is far better than both those guys

 

That's the one that said Spencer Rattler was QB1 lmao

 

JJ is better but that’s not saying much

I don’t think he’s going to do anything in the NFL

 

I don’t understand his Rattler as QB1 but I’m gonna read his take on it, cuz I like what he had written about Stroud

 

is it Daniel Kelly?

 

Daniels is a much better fit for Kingsbury and I think Maye is a much better fit for Van Pelt, so that tracks

 

Idk, I’ve heard that Maye has experience in an air raid-style offense so I wouldn’t rule out his fit with Kliff

 

I’d actually rather trade up 3-4 spots for Olu in that scenario

 

Willis is probably in the bottom 5 of QBs that I’ve seen take NFL snaps in recent memory so I’d sure hope so on him

I don’t think Levis and McCarthy are similar as prospects so it’s hard to say “better” (Levis has a massive arm and his highlight reel/playmaking ability looked really pretty coming out of college, but his lowlight reel and decision making also looked really rough — all of which translated to his rookie year; McCarthy is just kinda B- to B+ at everything and doesn’t have any exciting traits but few things that shows up as a glaring, unfixable weakness) but I think they’re similar in that they’re QB4 in a class with 3 very good QB prospects

 

You're missing a key element in evaluating these prospects. Age.

McCarthy is coming out as a true junior with 2 years of starting experience who played nearly the entire season at 20 years old. He's two years younger than Levis was when he transferred to Kentucky to start for his age 22 and 23 seasons. Bo Nix left Auburn for Oregon at 21 and he was still in high school when Michael Penix beat Michigan in 2020 in his third season at Indiana. If you're not considering age in your evaluation – or you're declaring that he has "glaring, unfixable weaknesses" – then I think you should reconsider your position.

The reason why Levis' tape was so alarming was that he was making those mistakes as an overage prospect (that's not to write off Levis either... he showed some things in his rookie year); I remember watching Matthew Stafford's tape at Georgia and he made a lot of those same mistakes... the difference is that Stafford was a 20-year-old junior and when you're that age, you're figuring out how to play the game of football at a high level.

Specifically, if you look at the recent young, elite QBs in the NFL, the one thing that almost every single one has in common is a huge leap in development/quality of play between the ages of 22 and 25:

CJ Stroud - Drafted at 21. 2024 NFL OROY.
Justin Herbert - Drafted at 21, Pro Bowler by 24
Joe Burrow - Transfers to LSU at 21, explodes in age 23 championship season, Super Bowl QB at 25
Josh Allen - Drafted at 21, takes massive developmental leaps in each successive season, MVP candidate by 24
Lamar Jackson - Drafted at 21, NFL MVP two years later
Patrick Mahomes - Drafted at 21, NFL MVP two years later

That doesn't mean all young QBs are destined to succeed or all overage QBs are doomed to fail. What it does mean is that QBs making mistakes at age 20 are much less concerning than QBs making mistakes when they're 23 because the game should be slowing down for them. Prospects like Nix, Penix, Pickett, Levis or Hooker may succeed in the NFL, but they're waaaay closer to finished products than younger prospects like JJ, Caleb, Drake, CJ, Bryce or Anthony Richardson who can still take leaps in development because they haven't/hadn't hit their windows of growth yet.

Caleb and Drake didn't have perfect tape this year, but because both their teams threw the ball significantly more, people have more grace for their bad film that JJ doesn't get because he wasn't throwing the ball 30-50 times a game.

 

I'm not too concerned with Nix or Penix's age. Or Daniels for that matter.

 

I'm not necessarily saying you should be, just that it may not be realistic to expect another jump in play or development from those guys. They all played at a high level this year.

 

oh yeah I hear you. I'm normally cautious of older prospects to be fair. Nix, Penix, and Daniels have two years playing at a high level, one of which was an elite level. Penix has stuff that worries me but I think Daniels and Nix have both established themselves as great prospects.

 

i asked this in the NFL thread and don’t know the answer — do you think the progression is tied to that age window actually being a true window of growth or do you think it’s more co-linear with QBs who declare for the draft early (especially in the NIL era) just being more gifted QBs and you’re just looking at selection bias when you look at age? My hunch is that QB developmental window ties most closely to NFL snap count, but I don’t have anything to back that up