2022 NFL Season Football • Page 750

God damnit the kiss of death

 

If the Raiders and Dolphins are in the AFC championship I'll tattoo Randall's face onto my entire back

 

You really shouldn’t say things like this!!

 

But god I hope it happens

 

FINS UP BAYBAY

 

I also saw someone say the Dolphins were the best roster in the AFC. Think Dolphins fans were just collectively all drunk today

 

He was playable last season despite his meaningless ypc

 

I mean that's obviously nonsense

But even as you agreed a few weeks ago, they're probably top ten in the league tbh

 

Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, and Najee Harris also did not average an arbitrary 4.0 YPC last year so I hope the YPC bros are keeping it even amongst all the names up at the top of RB rankings

 

The difference being those two were on teams that had absolutely no passing offense to speak of. It was easy to defend because Kamara/Barkley were all they had. Conner was the slow RB in an air raid offense with a mobile QB. They could come out in goal line formation and Conner still isn't the guy defenses are focusing on

 

So why is it bad for Conner if he’s not a guy defenses are focusing on? Is that not a pro-Conner take?

 

I want it to be known that that's Cam Jurgens, one of the strongest, most bullish linemen in the draft.

 

Grown ass men here in Philadelphia

 

His value came from TDs and idk that he can replicate that

 

He doesn’t have to when he’s going to receive significantly more volume than he did last year with Edmonds out of the picture

And if he gets hurt as a result, oh well. God forbid I play fantasy football and pick up some third string RB off the waiver who posts an RB1 week because volume is king in fantasy. I’m not scared!

 

Edmonds isn't really any good and barely topped 100 carries. They brought in Darrell and like Ingram and Eno too.

 

I’m not worried about Darrell, who’s making $1.1m on a one-year deal, and two running backs they invested very little draft capital into.

And they didn’t give Conner that contract to continue making him primarily a red zone guy. I expect him to get the bulk of Edmonds’ opportunities.

 

I like this train of thought, since it lines up with “good in fantasy” more than “good in actual football” and that’s a good point about YPC

The only part I don’t do as much is that I personally don’t like chasing TDs in the early rounds of the draft, because they’re the most random/volatile. In theory, it’d carry over year to year, but there’s enough change year over year with those kinds of things (ie. does Conner still get all the goal line looks with Darrel Williams replacing Edmonds as the RB2 and he’s a bit beefier than Chase? Does Kyler vulture more TDs this year/they execute on more red zone passing TDs? Does he just so happen to get stuffed a couple more times than last year?) that I don’t feel confident using an early pick on someone who I don’t think I’d want to start weekly if his TDs go down from a league outlier to something merely good like 8 or 9.

I also care a lot about how good the offense is for pass catchers and as a consideration for later round fliers, but not as much for early round RBs. Most of the highest usage guys are on teams that don’t have a good offense otherwise, because if they did, they’d pass more because it’s the objectively better thing to do at a high volume

 

Socklord is gonna take Conner and will knock me out of the playoffs with him. It's fate.

 

I wholeheartedly agree about TDs and not wanting to rely on them. I just think Conner can withstand that hit through more opportunities with the absence of Edmonds now. I stated above that I’m not overly concerned about Williams or anyone else. I think Conner could still score 10-12 touchdowns and people would probably be happy with that. He’s not priced like he scored 18 touchdowns last year. I think he’s a value right now because the injury and regression concerns are baked into his price already, perhaps too far

 

If this happens, I’m buying a Conner jersey

 

Here are the percent of snaps Conner played while Edmonds was sidelined with injury last year:

77%
82%
82%
91%
96%

I get the efficiency woes, but, god damn, Kliff treated that man like a workhorse. Obviously, I don’t expect to consistently see him that high, but around 65% (which would be more than any other game Conner played in last year) would be a rock solid snap percentage.

/rant

 

The Dolphins are gonna finish 11th in the league so I can scream “See! They weren’t THAT good!” and fins fans can say “eh close enough” and the wheel keeps on spinning.

 

with that team, you have this fun chain of thoughts:

- a good coach, in absence of an elite RB, should ride the hot hand and develop one or some of these late round backs rather than treating your inefficient lead back as a bell cow
- Kliff is not a good coach
- there’s also enough of a track record of chaos with that team that I wouldn’t rule out trading for yet another weapon, this time out of the backfield

 

Bunch of nerds in here putting too much thought into fantasy and will end up missing the playoffs because of it.