2022 NFL Season Football • Page 749

15th is QB1 in 16 man leagues!

 

I’m going to tweet this to him for motivation

 

Aaron Rodgers as a high end QB2 in 12 team leagues is gonna be the same sort of league winner that Tom Brady going in that range was last year

 

Maybe! The difference between the Bucs’ offense and the Packers’ is that the Bucs obviously have better receivers, but they also play at a much higher pace than the Packers. It wasn’t that long ago when Rodgers wasn’t actually that dominant in fantasy before he turned in a couple MVP seasons

 

I’m gonna state my case for StevensonSZN and then I’m gonna be right and you’re all going to be sad.

Harris is hurt often and a pending FA.
James White is def starting the year on PUP
Stevenson spent all season working on the passing game
One, if not two of those rookies are red shirting this year.
Stevenson rules.

 

Oh, don’t get me wrong, I’m in on Stevenson this year

 

RB .5 PPR Ranks

1) Jonathan Taylor duh
2) Najee Harris
3) Christian McCaffrey
4) Dalvin Cook
5) Derrick Henry
6) Austin Ekeler
7) D’Andre Swift
8) Aaron Jones
9) Nick Chubb
10) Alvin Kamara
11) Javonte Williams
12) Joe Mixon
13) Saquon Barkley
14) Zeke Elliott
15) JK Dobbins
16) Breece Hall
17) Leonard Fournette
18) James Conner
19) Antonio Gibson
20) ETN

probably the places that I deviate most from consensus is that I think the guys that have a bit of tread on the tires and were uncharacteristically healthy last year are all a bit overrated (Mixon, Fournette, Conner)

 

If I don’t draft players in fear of them getting hurt, I don’t deserve to win

 

It’s not “avoiding in fear of them getting hurt”, it’s “I think their stock is too high because they’re pretty mediocre RBs but their most recent season was a healthy/abnormally productive one and it’s skewing perception upwards”

 

James Conner averaged under 4 a carry and there’s no way he replicates 15 TDs again this year. I’d be more than happy to take him as a late RB2 but I’m not touching him as a top 15 RB. Ditto for Fournette’s closing sequence last year when compared to everything else he’s put on paper. And Mixon was a good buy candidate last year coming off of injury, and now is a good fade candidate coming off of a career year and, in my opinion, unsustainable usage numbers

 

For fantasy, all I really care about when it comes to RBs is what offenses they play in, do they get targets, and do they get red zone/goal line carries. Yards per carry really doesn’t hold much weight over the course of a full season. Hayden Winks of Underdog collected some data and was saying the difference between a RB with 4.0 YPC versus one with 3.5 YPC in half ppr was an average of about 12 points over the course of a full season. I’ll see if I can dig up the tweet

 

I have Conner ranked as my RB10. That doesn’t mean I have to draft him as the tenth overall running back. The groupthink surround Conner is why he’s a late third round pick in tournaments on Underdog. He’ll likely remain a third round pick on casual platforms as well.

 

And, yes, we obviously do want efficient RBs who can break off explosive plays, but that stuff is just icing on the cake to me, or at least those things can help buoy a back who maybe doesn’t check all those boxes I’m looking for. Nick Chubb is a perfect example.

 

Thought there was a stand-alone tweet, but I can’t seem to find it. With that said, here’s a thread specifically about James Conner where Hayden mentions what I brought up.

Context of the offense changes everything. Conner isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s in line for a great opportunity in a fantasy-friendly offense this year and he mostly smashed when given that opportunity last year when Edmonds was out with injury.

Also, YPC is a little noisy, especially with Conner. Chase Edmonds operated as the Cardinals primary back between the 20s last year, leaving most of the red zone work to Conner. Conner’s one or two yard plunges across the goal line are going to negatively effect his YPC, but I don’t care because he’s getting me six points for my team when he does that.

When it comes to Fournette, he was good in 2017 and was actually quite solid for fantasy in 2019 with the Jags because he just saw a ton of volume as the bellcow. Many people made fun of him, myself included, during his 2020 run with the Bucs and I didn’t want to believe his performance in the playoffs that year would carry over into 2021, but it did! He was pretty good last year. Not sexy, not ripping off highlights, but he was seeing valuable opportunities in a fast-paced offense run by…Tom Brady! And I want a RB attached to Brady!

 

We did it guys! Proud of y’all.

 

As a Ravens fan, I would love to see Hunt go play in a different division. I'm just reading about that and it's has me feeling a mix of this and any gif of someone rubbing their hands together.

 

as a fellow ravens fan, I agree with you. Thoughts, @Fuego?

 

Too many Ravens fans

 

Too many Steelers fans

 

Too many fans

 

Too many jags fans. Randall and Matt are like ten people.

 

Like, for example, that Gus Edwards got more touches than him when they were both healthy in 2020. Im not even sure there is a world Dobbins can touch 200 carries, for example...maybe total we're talking 225 touches. The top RB1s are touching the ball 2x as much.

Feels like he's that perfect flex guy that can go off, but even as an RB2 he's shaky week to week

 

Put me on the "would not draft James Conner" bandwagon. Guy didnt even average 4ypc in one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. He might get more volume than JK Dobbins yet be unplayable most weeks

 

I’ve decided this is the year Derrick Henry falls off. He’s older than most so I think he got a pass from the light workload early in his career but the curse of his position Will get him.

 

Gotta watch with sound up