2022 NFL Season Football • Page 722

not because you can’t understand it but because you refuse to. You always go back to “well no, the numbers say this” and I’m like “yeah I know that’s what I’m trying to tell you” and then you get mad like I’m making excuses instead of making legitimate points about how much that can be affected by other things

it is always my take that defensive metrics are HEAVILY dependent on how much the offense can keep them off the field and how aggressive they can force the other team to be. The more conservatively the opponent CAN win, the more conservatively they WILL win and the less they’ll turn the ball over / get sacked. The more the offense gets the ball in good field position against a tired defense, the more points** they will put up. This is true of every defense and it’s why I take most defensive stats with a situational grain of salt.

Yards allowed though, that’s something the offense has almost nothing to do with. Again, I repeat if the opponent only has 20 yards to go, that’s the offense’s fault, not the defense. If the opponent has half the field to go or more, then we can steadily put more and more blame on the defense because then they allowed more first downs and more successful plays en route to the score. (OR they allowed a catastrophic big play.) If you don’t want to agree that this plays a large role in how well a defense finishes in MULTIPLE categories then fine but that undermines your point to pretend it doesn’t.

 

I don't think that being 20th in yards per game is the only thing you need to consider when looking at how good a defense is. I am stupid

 

I had to go to summer school for geometry. Solidarity brother.

 

If that's what you're trying to tell me then why am I the one bringing up numbers and you're the one ignoring them? lol

.........bruh, I've literally been saying that this whole entire time lol. That the 20th in yards allowed per game is being taken out of context because YOU aren't factoring in opponent field position and how when you have fewer yards available to gain, you gain fewer yards lol.

 

Because numbers are LITERALLY meaningless or misleading if you conceptualize them wrong. All I am doing is repeating myself and you keep being like “but I brought up the numbers though.” Yeah, but we have to have a consensus meaning for the numbers first that accounts for everything that influences the numbers, before they give us any sort of frame of reference



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the reason that logic doesn’t work is because yards happen every drive while points has a lot more to do with situation. I’ve said this already but lemme explain it again. over time 15 drives worth of yards is gonna give you a complete picture of how the defense is doing even if 4-5 of them were short fields. It’s very common for an offense to get points just because of where they are on the field, but yards has nothing to do with that. Yards is just straight up “offensive success” and you have the same chance of getting yards pretty much everywhere on the field. The point you are making actually adds to MY point because the number of yards in ONE drive influences points allowed far more than it influences total yards

 

Like this is what I mean. I’ve addressed both those points already but because you’re stubborn about “well the numbers are automatically 100% objective” without understanding my point is, “objective about WHAT?” Usually they’re objective only in the sense that you have to know how much weight / blame to attribute each result in order for them to be accurate.

much harder to attribute that weight / blame for a stat that literally has a direct relationship with what the offense is doing. In the stats world we would do a regression model with MULTIPLE factors to see which ones influence things the heaviest, but since we’re not going THAT hard in this thread I am trying to at least explain logically why a lot of stats don’t make one point as cleanly as you think. Yards allowed isnt ENTIRELY clean but situationally that stat is a LOT harder to skew.

 

They aren't misleading lol. They're literally adding context to the one single number you think is all you need lol. It's not being conceptualized wrong lol. Like, at no point have you actually explained why these things don't matter. You just keep saying they don't matter lol

Yes, and if 5 of them were short fields while other teams only have 1 or 2, that's gonna add up too over the course the season

Idk why you keep bringing up points allowed lol. I'm not bringing it up. Why tf do you keep pretending that's the only thing I'm saying? lol.

 

I responded to BOTH of your main arguments here MULTIPLE TIMES this is why I said “it’s just gonna go over your head” because you don’t even realize I’ve already answered the ways you challenged my point

 

You just think “nah that’s bullshit” and dismiss it every time, which is honestly disrespectful to the fact that my whole career is gonna be like 50% doing exactly this, critiquing the efficacy of stats to communicate certain messages

 

You haven't though. The quotes are left unquoted. The points are left unaddressed. You still haven't explained why you were so condescending and said that literally everyone in the media does something that I proved they do not do and that I'm arrogant for suggesting you're wrong lol

 

Maybe, just maybe, it's bullshit lol. Maybe you haven't actually said the things you think you've said lol. Because literally no one has jumped in to be like "Randall is completely and totally right wtf" while others have chimed in to point out how you're wrong. MAYBE, think on why that might be.

 

There has been literally two other people participating in this discussion lmao get over yourself

 

I’m worth a whole lot and speak for others, alright

 

because the primary sources NFL, ESPN, and actual broadcast games have always and still do rank defenses based on yards allowed. In fact, look up on Google right now how the Jags ranked last year. It says 20th because of YARDS. Just because analytics sites like PFF and PFR use more complicated metrics that aggregate multiple stats doesn’t change how it’s conventionally done. So you actually are completely wrong about that. By default most standard websites tables are organized by yards when you search up “best defenses”. You found exceptions, not the rule. Look it up next time they mention a ranking on a broadcast

 

You know what else ranks defenses by yards? Madden. It’s a pretty conventional thing.

 

bruh I literally showed you ESPN and NFL jesus fucking christ

 

Also, PFF and PFR disagreeing with you is not something to just brush off and it's hysterical that you think you just can lol.

 

I just looked up ESPN and it matched yards. Buffalo was 1st, Jax was 20th. NFL actually by default has them alphabetical so it’s not even ranked at first

 

why are you being sooooooooooooooo dense. Those are analytics websites. Of course they have more detailed metrics. PFF does EVERYTHIGN differently from EVERY other stats website of course it’s an exception and not the rule

 

you looked up ESPN's ranking or you looked at the ESPN stat page where they sort it by yards per game lool

 

And if you can’t take me seriously when I discuss sports stats *context* then why would I just go look at your websites? I already told you you are looking for the wrong stats to make your point. All you did is just throw more numbers at me without critiquing those either, knowing I’m at work and not about to open 12 other web sites. That’s just a real dumb way to argue when this could’ve been resolved by you saying “fair, our offense WAS even worse” at any point

 

If you're at work then stop arguing oh my god lol. Do you even hear yourself!? Do you have one inch of self awareness!? It's MY FAULT!? Bruh. PUT THE PHONE DOWN lol. My GOD lol

 

Yes, you are being dense. I said “that stat doesn’t make a direct point” and you said “here are more stats I’m not going to question and am just going to assume at face value they make me right”

 

Can we lock threads. Is that possible