2021 NFL Season Thread Football • Page 55

Agreed. If you want to give up a 1st this year, I get it, but giving up multiple picks that includes a future 1st is insanity.

 

Insanely likeable.

 

This...this kind of makes me like him. Getting wobbly drunk and throwing the Lombardi trophy boat to boat is peak parade stuff

 

Idk, if I'm Indy and feel like with 39 year old Phillip Rivers I was only a 32-year Phillip Rivers away from competing I'd give up a 2022 1st and a 3rd for 28 year old-35 year old Philip Rivers.

 

He missed more than half the season and is suspended for the first two games in 2021. Also frees up $12 million being released.

 

Uhhhhhhhh

 

another nice throw from the GOAT

 

I....did not follow this.

 

I still don’t really understand why the conversation around arguably the worst but almost certainly a bottom 5 starting QB last year who is also not on a particularly team-friendly deal includes a first

 

My gut is:
- no one has offered a first
- Howie is using his media buds to leak fake offers that include a first and saying that the price is 2 firsts to try to coax someone into “matching” the first ridiculous offer
- no one is matching because the price is stupid

 

And there’s not really a reason for the price to not be stupid. It’s February 10th and the bonus vests on like March 20th or something. Probably don’t want to be waiting until the day before for someone to give you a first rounder, but no reason to move him at this very moment unless someone forces you to (see: Lions + Stafford). I don’t see the limited market for Wentz evaporating between now and then with no other real options in FA and the other trade options being similarly underwhelming

 

I also firmly believe that the Eagles don't wanna trade Wentz and are also using this as a excuse to say at least we tried but no one wanted him. It's a clown show at this point.

 

Because no team is trading for him under the premise he's a bottom 5 QB.

Its like asking "Why did the Colts give Jacoby Brissett a 2yr/$30mil extension when he was only a starter because Luck retired?". Its two parts; one, you pay starting QBs not on a rookie deal a significant amount of money because otherwise they might rightfully get pissed they're working for 1/10th the pay. And two, you are hedging against the true cost of a starting QB (if he busts out, suddenly you owe him 4/$120mil instead of 2/$30mil).

If you're trading for a dude you think is a franchise QB, you weight it against the alternatives. Wentz's deal is fine for a franchise QB (and half the AAV of Mahomes). Plenty of franchise QBs have been traded for say, a 1st and a 3rd. And imagine missing out on the next Tannehill cause you'd only offer a 3rd instead of a 1st.

 

Also, the Stafford trade happened...and it was for 2 1sts and a starting QB. I know the circumstances are unique, but if Stafford is worth 2 1sts AND a more reliable QB than Wentz, then any starting QB is kind of worth, bare minimum, a first.

Everything that follows is an assessment of whether or not Wentz is a franchise/starting QB. If you think he is, offering up a 1st makes sense.. If you think he isnt, you offer nothing, because otherwise you are wasting a 3rd rounder or whatever.

 

Eh, I dont agree with that. Dude got fragile when he was rightfully benched; you think he'll love hearing his named floated in trades?

I agree with @whitenblue88 that they probably have some soft offers and are trying to push it higher, but, them floating that its 2 1sts is definitely hilarious.

 

I agree with all of this - I just think I draw the lines differently.

Worst case scenario: you’re got something like 2/$45M for a backup QB - that’d probably be worth offloading for basically free next year to anyone who would take it

Comparable trade compensation: idk, maybe Osweiler, which resulted in giving up a second to get rid of him. Realistically, I think there’s enough allure there that you could get a team with a need for a bridge QB to give up a day 3 pick for the last guaranteed year of that deal (see: Foles, Nick)

Best case scenario: you know what’s broken with him and bring him back to being a top 10 QB

Comparable trade compensation: Stafford or Cutler - two firsts and a QB (and an extra third in the Cutler trade because the QB coming back was not particularly good)

————

There isn’t a great trade to compare the middle ground to, but Tannehill + 6 for 4 and Alex Smith for a 3 + a CB feel like the closest. If you’re gonna use hindsight to say that Tennessee underpaid for Tannehill and say that Wentz has more upside than Smith, that’s fine, but then I’d also want to use hindsight to say that Chicago overpaid for Cutler.

I think that back and forth gets you as a smart buyer to cave to giving up a second, or if you really want to go in to get your guy, a second and a future pick that escalates with performance or a second and a serviceable player (but even those feel like overpays based on past similar trades). Going up to a first, or the first and a future day 2 pick like Jeremiah threw out there still feels way too high and you’re shouldering too much of the risk as the buying team

 

THE COLTURE

 

Yeah, truthfully, I think we are almost entirely in agreement...I'm just seeing how going from what you propose above (which, is what I'd want my team to pay if the Steelers were going for Wentz) to a 1st isnt a big leap. A 2021 2nd and future conditional 4th is mighty close to a 2021 1st.

Honestly, a smart offer might be a 3rd or 4th this year, and then a 2022 conditional pick based on certain escalators. Maybe a 2022 3rd if he does jack shit and doesn't start. A 2022 2nd if he's a regular starter with 75+% of snaps. But that's a brutal offer for the Eagles to have to accept.

 

Conditional '22 pick

1st - Pro Bowl
2nd - Starts and is good
3rd - Starts and is okay
4th - Starts and is mediocre
5th - Starts and is bad

 

What a trip it’s been keeping up with the celebrations online today. The masklessness took me out of it a couple times, but couldn’t help but get swept up in it, regardless of how absurd some things were lol

 

really the only way to trade for Wentz and look smart haha