2021 NFL Season Thread Football • Page 142

Im sure someone has done the math, but, I suspect most every position except QB has a decent range of first round busts and late round steals. And QB is simply because its a position that gets over-drafted relative to direct talent/value.

But I cant think of any position where, at age 30, you become functionally useless; and honestly there's probably event a touch total that's more direct (any player with 350+ touches in a season usually breaks down, and Im betting maybe 2000 touches total is your endgame?). Larry Fitzgerald is 37; people are gonna give 32yr old Marvin Jones and TY Hilton contracts not far off what Aaron Jones gets in AAV. 28yr old Allen Robinson will fetch 2x a RB price at age 28...and someone could hand him a 7yr deal and we wouldnt flinch. Anyone hands 27yr old Aaron Jones a 7yr deal and we prepare for that GM to get fired.

That first round pick gives you functionally 6yrs of control where the players only leverage is sitting out, at which point a RBs career is basically over.

 

okay mr “our division has Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry and you’re all suckers”

lol

 

Harris' 2021 NFL Mock Draft 5.2 | The Draft Network

 

Ok so:

I started with the 2018 draft and went back 10 from that and from there, I pulled the top 20 players by drafted AV at each position (because I don’t care what my draft picks do when they’re no longer on my team) and got their drafted round. I also posted the average of those AVs to show the relative value of getting a top 20 player at that position.

QB: 16 of the top 20 were drafted in the first, AVG drafted AV of those players: 59.9
RB: 10 of 20 in first, AVG: 41.7
WR: 10 of 20 in first, AVG: 56.65
OL: 14 of 20 in first, AVG: 62.15
DE: 14 of 20 in first, AVG: 53.15
DT: 13 of 20 in first, AVG: 52.5
LB: 9 of 20 in first, AVG: 61
CB: 12 of 20 in first, AVG: 21.75
S: 3 of 20 in first, AVG: 21.9

My takeaways:
- I think AV drastically undervalues secondary players, but regardless, safety is easily the most obvious example where you can find quality starters late (this also had BY FAR the most day 3 players)
- removing the outliers in the secondary, RB stands out as the worst value both in terms of how many quality players you can get on day 2 vs day 1 and in terms of how much it contributes to the team (again though, some of that comparison is bias in the statistic)
- players are mispositioned often in draft data so it was hard to break out different OL positions in the 5 minutes I spent on this and DE mostly includes EDGEs while LB mostly includes off-ball backers. I assume interior IL would be a place where you can find value late had I been able to break it out because just about everyone on the list plays tackle
- the data supports targeting QB, OT, and EDGE rushers on the whole early, as I have been saying. After looking at this, I had CB as a “quality position” and I’m starting to question that a little bit mainly because that position seems to have low longevity of playing at a high level and that’s the biggest knock on RBs so it’s a little hypocritical to not knock CBs similarly

 

Disney about to park the Brinks truck at Peyton’s house

 

Sus tweet.

 

Gil is the GOAT

 

The offseason doesnt have to be that complicated. Strikes me the move is

1. Spread Bens roster bonus over 2-3 more years (save $10mil on the cap)
2. Cut Joe Haden ($12mil cap saving), use that money to keep Sutton and/or Hilton
3. Give TJ Watt his deal and make the 2021 cap hit about the same it currently is (huge signing bonus, bit 2022 roster bonus, etc...maybe save $2-3mil on the cap)
4. Re-run the 2012 draft, go OL early and often. Fill in depth with the late rounds (some DL help, maybe a backup TE).

The offensive skill positions are more than set, we've got a ton of cap space 2022 and beyond...

 

Wow. Guess CarpetElf can go fuck himself lol. Been avoiding drafting a center for the Texans because I thought they liked Nick Martin

 

Bruh I can’t.

I have a friend coming over today, so I again cleaned the whole house by myself.

I told my roommate this and asked if he could just straighten up the basement (where our music gear is), which, he obliged because all the mess down there is his mess (including cups / beer cans and laundry everywhere)

but then when I told him everything else I cleaned he’s like “what, are you fucking this guy?” Which. #1, homophobic ass joke, I’m not but what if I was? #2 THATS NOT THE ONLY REASON TO CLEAN A FILTHY HOUSE FOR GUESTS YOU FUCKING DOLT.

I JUST DID EVERYTHING YOU *NEVER* DO, AGAIN! AND YOURE CRACKING SHITTY JOKES INSTEAD OF SAYING THANK YOU?????????

 

I really can’t wait until i can afford better than living with this.... child who just doesn’t get it

 

When McAfee did his intro to interviewing Barry Sanders he noted he was a 10 time all pro in a 10 year career! That is insane! I looked it up he was 6 time first and 4 time second team. He basically had a 10 year start to finish peak as being the best or second best running back in the nfl.

 

Dude retired two years after his MVP/2k yard season.

 

Yeah Barry was the GOAT

I still will never understand his early retirement. Two more seasons, and he’s above Emmitt Smith in the record books.

 

Well, not in touchdowns.

 

Let’s be real with ourselves Emmitt Smith’s records are never ever ever getting broken in the modern NFL

 

he fas’

 

Meet the Lions lol