2021 CHORUS MOCK DRAFT V4: The "Last" One [Archived] • Page 20

Even if it’s just to compare the class, I can probably easily name 15 players that are more athletic for their position than Surtain. Including Jaycee Horn.

 

also, Jordan is not that athletic and he very obviously is not being knocked down for being 6'2" lol

 

Jaycee Horn is literally graded higher than Surtain. Quit talking out of your ass.

 

Jordan’s testing numbers tell me he is small for the position and is a fast TE who is not particularly agile. None of that seems particularly controversial and should show when watching him play, and looking at it in the RAS interface just makes those comparisons jump off the page easier and puts data behind those opinions you’d probably already have from watching him IMO.

The 4.55 itself is roughly meaningless to me, but also, Tremble scores higher (8.91) and I can see that he’s a slightly larger undersized player at the position who not only is fast but also has a vertical element to his game that Jordan didn’t specifically test well in and I might question if that’ll transfer as well for Jordan. It’s not the end-all-be-all but it’s an interesting start and a data point in comparing TE3 and TE4 in the draft, who should play pretty similar roles in an offense

 

I’m not talking out of my ass. If he’s using a uniform distribution, and saying “the best guys are a 10” rather than “the best guys are a certain distance from the average” then that’s probably why it comes across so extreme as if they’re saying Surtain is Deion Sanders. It’s misleading to give a guy a 9.96, that straight up looks like “one of the best of all time” is the message.

Things like this are better represented by a normal distribution; I.e. being 6’4” is a 5, 6”3 is a 4, but you gotta be like 6’0” to get a 1. The way it works is most values cling to the mean, and outliers are measured by just how much of an outlier they are. Thats what standard deviation is used for.

That’s the only way RAS numbers from this draft can even be compared to RAS numbers from other drafts - where, for example, Byron Jones was a 10 in his draft, but he was way more of an outlier than Jaycee Horn. And then what, do you just give Deion or Randy Moss an 11? Lmao. It makes more sense to make Horn an 8.5 because he’s fairly deviant from the mean but not extremely... while Moss is the guy you give a 9.96 to.

The way he seems to have it set up is that the best time is a 10, the worst time is a 0, and everyone gets evenly distributed based on ranking. I think that legitimately skews the statistics towards the edges and doesn’t represent the actual pattern. It does a poor job of representing how RARE that level of athleticism is. It makes Brevin seem UNUSUALLY short instead of just on the shorter side.


I feel like that limits you to taking an extremely broad brush as @whitenblue88 does, and only making concise judgments if the players are *several* points apart. Which makes the scale... really not that useful compared to just looking at pro day numbers lol

 

Randall spending more time and effort arguing about analytics instead of familiarizing himself with the things he's arguing about is quickly becoming my least favorite bit

 

It’s the opposite. I’m actually trying to understand why these grades make no sense because that’s most of what I’m learning in school, how best to organize and represent data for decision making. Like, there’s a good chance that me challenging ineffective algorithms and suggesting better ways to organize and arrange values is going to be my job.

Ive always felt that whenever media organizations try to create next gen stats the scale is really awkward. PFF, RAS, ESPN’s weird QBR that prioritizes the wrong shit, and even Quarterback Rating itself is strange sometimes. Then you have adjusted DVOA and all this hot garbage and people literally take it like gospel because everyone is afraid of math and doesn’t wanna question the numbers.

I inow this is jsut sports and it’s not serious but it CAN be serious, such as COVID 19 data being manipulated to seem like the numbers aren’t shockingly rising. It can be serious, such as cops misrepresenting people of color as major red flags in the system - because a data entry about one racist infraction, simultaneously makes them more likely to be targeted for another sting. So sorry if I’m a total nerd but i feel like if you want to use tons of numbers and create exponentially more and more complicated relationships between multiple variables, that’s a heavy responsibility.

from the sports perspective, I could be the fastest guy on Chorus and be graded a 10 in RAS out of all of us. That would mean nothing compared to any other RAS measurement and would say nothing about HOW fast I am (maybe we’re all slow and I’m the only guy who didn’t trip.) so I just don’t see it as helpful.

 

I don't have a pick til like the 5th round now I think lol so I am probably done mocking for the year

Kyle Pitts
Kwity Paye
Javonte Williams
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jevon Holland

what a haul.

 

be obnoxious when it comes to this stuff then. not football.

 

Okay, fair enough.

 

Excited for my Panthers pick but all 3 teams in front of me might take him

 

The Philadelphia Eagles select Dayo Odeyingbo, DE, Vanderbilt

Brandon Graham isn't getting any younger and Derek Barnett has been somewhat of a disappointment. Odeyingbo may not be able to contribute much this year because of an Achilles injury, but his ability to move inside on passing downs is something that the Eagles have long valued

 

@EntryLevelDave up for the Broncos

 

Wanna move up into this Broncos pick?

 

The Broncos select Trill Williams, CB, Syracuse.

 

@Joe4th Lions are up.

 

Lions select Patrick Jones II, DE Pitt

 

@Swoos

Panthers up

 

Carolina Panthers select Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama




Moses is a terrific athlete that has experience playing at every LB position. He covers sideline to sideline, makes great reads, and is a really strong tackler. Every time you watched Bama, it was clear that he was a player you’d want on your team.

Ever since Luke’s retirement, Carolina’s LB group has been very thin with talent. This offseason the team signed Denzel Perryman and Hassan Reddick as reinforcements. This pick gives the Panthers 4 LBs (Shaq, Perryman, Reddick, Moses) who each have a distinct skillset. I’d be really excited to see what Phil Snow could do with this group.

 

@CarpetElf wft

 

Washington Football team selects Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

Media, Fans, Most Teams - this is an offensive league now.

Ron Rivera:

 

That's a great pick

 

Dallas Cowboys select Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma

 

@CarpetElf giants