2020 CHORUS MOCK DRAFT 2.0: IS BLIMP STILL OUT THERE? • Page 48

@socklord and I think there's a fallacy in the way you're approaching this - late round players CAN be good long term starters. It's not like the ceiling of a fourth rounder is "rotational player". There's actually a good distribution of late round picks vs early rounders if you look at where the best players in the league were drafted, at any given time. It's definitely not a talent pool dominated by first rounders like you would think.

The ceiling/potential is not limited, just your chances of finding that guy. With multiple fourth round picks you very well could find a franchise player with one of them even if the other ones are busts / special teams players.

 

Idk how often I'm going to be saying this this offseason but a lot of a player's success is situational and it isn't just "the teams that stockpile comp picks happen to have a higher batting avg in the draft", it's also "the teams with the great coaching staffs who are constantly in contention and as a result get those comp picks just happen to have those picks develop into good players more often".

 

OH yeah your counter was perfectly fair, that's not the issue here. Had the Jags held on to, idk, their pro bowl players, I would've been fine giving up the 2nd but I couldn't afford it.

 

I mean I think it's both. Those teams stockpile comps for a reason. It increases their chances of finding a player with coachable potential; in turn, they have a very high success rate on players with coachable potential. Because that's what they focus on.

 

Exactly and I like Ron Rivera but I think there's a big gap between Bill Belichick churning out day 3 players as starters and what Ron Rivera would do with a bunch of 4ths and a drop in pick vs #2 overall

 

If you do that year by year, consistently, it probably is good practice for your coaches because they're getting a lot of experience coaching up young talent from non-SEC schools.

 

That's not convincing me to trade #2 for Yannick, #9, and a bunch of late round picks

 

FWIW the Patriots also aren't necessarily amazing at drafting, they're fine

 

I mean fair haha. I explained myself and you're not gonna agree. That's totally fine. Same to you @EntryLevelDave

I don't think it was a lowball offer. I understand not wanting to trade out of 2 unless you get a serious haul. But I don't think it was a predatory offer. It could've helped the skins have a more complete draft.

 

So if you're talking about the longterm, why would you throw away #2 for a bunch of later picks and try and complete a team in 1 draft rather than making more selections next year and filling out the team as you go?

 

The Bonercats rebuild ain't gonna happen in one offseason buddy boy

 

I think they're terrible in early rounds but definitely above average in the mid rounds.

Ravens meanwhile build their whole reputation on being smart with acquiring mid round picks and how they use them haha.

 

could happen in two instead of three though.

 

I do think Washington has a chance to rebuild over the next couple of years - which is why if I trade down for #2 overall, I want something in 2021's draft too. (Or @uuu's hypothetical offer of 7 and 9 would probably get it done too)

edit: not including Yannick in that, obviously Yannick reduces the price a bit

 

Now you're playing semantics, which, to me, is what using late round picks to sway a major deal is trying to do

 

2 for 9 + 2nd + Yannick is fair imo

 

it's not trading #2 for a bunch of later picks. it's trading #2 for 9, a close-to-elite pass rusher, and then a couple mid rounders as a bonus. I feel like it bears repeating cause we keep skipping over the meat of the trade when we discuss this and hyperfocusing on the "extras" i threw in.

I think the more needs you can hit at one time the better. Of course Rome wasn't built in a day. But if you do it faster you stand a better chance at sustainable success, instead of having to make contract decisions on your original "rebuild" picks while you're still coaching up half your roster. Id rather have two whole years of a young talented rebuild than like, still be trying to finish the rebuild when it's time to sign Chase Young.

 

Damn, I thought he was making it to me.

 

You would have to. I mean, look at the Jets trade from a couple years ago for Sam Darnold.

The Jets sent the No. 6 overall pick, two 2018 second-round picks — No. 37 and No. 49— and a 2019 second-round pick to the Colts in exchange for the No. 3 overall pick.

Those are all premium picks. No late round bullshit involved.

 

The problem I ran into was probably @xbrokendownx's decision to not move up this go. That was plan #1 and it fell apart quick lol

 

@Joe4th save us from this debate please

 

in the final one I probably will have to to get ahead of whomever has the Chargers

I just wanted to see what kind of haul I would get by staying put

 

And that was a massive overpay, was it not?

 

Oh god, you mean you guys do more than one of these things?

 

All of those picks are later than #2 so yes it's trading for later picks. I get that it appears disingenuous the way I phrased it, but it is what it'd be. It's also counting on Yan to sustain his elite play at a level at or above his contract value, and counting on not missing on #9. See the problem is it's much easier to miss at #9 and those mid rounders than it is to miss at #2, even if you add the insurance of Ngakoue. You increase your chances to hit on a developmental player that can be a starter, and sacrifice the increased chance of not drafting (and probably starting!) a bust in the 1st which is very very possible. We can talk about those increased odds but we have to talk about the decreased odds from losing out on CY or equivalent as well. If you miss, it hurts a LOT, especially if you don't get another chance that high.