That’s not really a predictive ratio. You could also say “the last two winners of the audience award weren’t nominated for best director.”
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 66% of the 2010s TIFF winners going on to get a Best Director nomination seems like it's worth considering to me. It's not determinative, it's just another factor in the analysis.
Irishman and Marriage Story don't really need the help and also lol at Netflix being deep in debt and flying people to stay in luxury hotels
(That’s why it’s always so silly when people get so worked up and invested in who wins these things, while acknowledging I watch these things every year and like when the movies I like win)
Keep forgetting Deakins is probably gonna go from a perennial runner-up to winning twice within three years
I was wondering about that or Richard Jewell being possibilities, but they aren’t actually getting that much hype or acclaim from what I’ve seen, so who knows what will happen.
Parasite made the shortlist for best original SONG. I didn’t even know it had a fucking song! It absolutely has the legs to go all the way.
Jojo Rabbit —> Green Book Joker —> Bohemian Rhapsody Obviously this is a personal preference, but I feel that, like Green Book, Jojo Rabbit is a totally fine, 6/10 crowd pleaser that could totally win BP in the preferential ballot system, while Joker, like BoRhap, is a really crap movie that is somehow picking up awards steam cause it made so much goddamn money and has a magnetic lead performance.