Wow Little Women got blanked. I think ScarJo is blah in Jojo and it’s so weird to see her keep showing up there.
I really wouldn't count Leo out. Especially if a Driver vs. Phoenix narrative takes hold, they could wind up splitting the vote and letting Leo sneak in. Additionally, the nature of OUATIH is such that it will be a very alluring prospect for the Academy to shower it with as many awards as they can justify (dialogue-heavy movie about Hollywood/making movies with two of the biggest stars on the planet at the top of the bill). It's happened before, and with a QT movie too no less: remember 2012, when everyone said Best Supporting Actor was between De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, the two of them traded wins at the precursor shows, and then at the Oscars they split the vote and allowed Christoph Waltz to steal it for Django? This could be because not enough of the SAG members have seen it yet. Oscar nomination voting doesn't close until 1/7 so there's a chance it will do better there.
The SAG awards are notoriously middle of the road and safe. Parasite could legitimately win Best Picture.
Honestly after last year, I don't think the Academy will be ready to give BP to a foreign language film for a long while yet. If they preferred to give it to goddamn Green Book over Roma then what chance does Parasite have against the likes of, idk, goddamn Arthur Clownman probably.
The fact that they gave Parasite an ensemble nod is a HUGEEEE deal. That indicates broad support across the entire actors branch, which is the biggest voting body, and benefits it greatly in the preferential ballot system.
I know, and I think it's a clear shoe-in for a BP nomination. But a BP win is tougher. Remember just last year Green Book won BP without even being nominated for Best Cast, while the Best Cast winner, Black Panther, had a very successful night in its own right just not successful enough to win the top prize (superhero movie bias of course is also a factor in this specific scenario but still). My Arthur Clownman comment was a joke, I don't think it has a chance of winning BP. I think that fellow SAG Best Cast nominees The Irishman and OUATIH have a better chance of winning BP than Parasite for a variety of reasons, though.
Super early Best Picture Nominee prediction that I'll revise closer to when the nominees are going to be announced: OUATIH The Irishman Marriage Story Parasite Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Bombshell 1917 Us
There’s a world where Parasite gets nine or ten Oscar nominations and I hope we live in that world. (Pic/director/supporting actor/screenplay/editing/foreign/production design/cinematography/sound)
Forgot about 1917, I think that has a shot at getting in as well. And there isn't zero chance Us gets in, it's a financially successful crowd-pleaser/"popular" film written and directed by a prior Oscar winner and starring a prior Oscar winner who was just nominated by SAG for her dual performances in it. It's a dark horse pick but it's not out of the realm of possibility. I also don't think those are guaranteed to be the nominees, it's still way too early for that, I just think the nominees will consist of some combination of those ten. OUATIH, Irishman, Parasite, and Jojo Rabbit I would consider locks for BP nominations though, probably Marriage Story too. We also shouldn't discount Taika for Best Director at the Oscars. Could see the field being Bong, QT, Marty, and the final two being some combination of Taika/Baumbach/Mendes/Gerwig.
why not? (also just based on recent history, as this year's TIFF winner Jojo is already one of the potential frontrunners)
Because it’s not a particularly flashy directed movie and in a category that probably already has three locks (Tarantino, Scorsese and Bong) id imagine those last two slots will go to some combination of Mendes/Baumbach/Gerwig, Hell, even Phillips before him.
Right but Jojo has a lot of things going for it that put him above those other ones too. It's a middle-of-the-road crowd-pleaser with a good message politically (albeit one that apparently is as simplistic as "Nazis are bad"). It won at TIFF, which can mean a lot because it shows that people already like it. It's been out for a long time so it will probably have had more eyeballs on it than all of those other movies aside from Joker and maybe Marriage Story since it's on Netflix. I think Taika is absolutely in that conversation for the fourth and fifth slots.
Also, in the 2010s, only three of the TIFF winners didn't have their directors go on to be nominated at the Oscars (Green Book, Three Billboards, Where Do We Go Now?)