Aside from Animated Short, Live Action Short, Doc Short, and Doc Feature which I haven't seen enough to make a fair guess (though I'm planning on it), here's what I want vs. what will win. Might switch this up after the Guild votes, but this is what I'm thinking I'm doing for all those Guess the Oscars contests. Picture: Parasite / Once Upon a Time Director: Bong / Bong Actor: Driver / Phoenix Actress: Johansson / Zellweger Supporting Actor: Hanks / Pitt Supporting Actress: Dern / Dern Animated Feature: Klaus / Missing Link Adapted Screenplay: Little Women / The Irishman Original Screenplay: Parasite / Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Cinematography: 1917 / 1917 International Feature: Parasite / Parasite Editing: Parasite / The Irishman Sound Editing: 1917 / 1917 Sound Mixing: 1917 / 1917 Production Design: Parasite / Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Original Score: Marriage Story / Joker Original Song: Toy Story 4 / Rocketman Makeup/Hairstyling: Bombshell / Bombshell Costume Design: Little Women / Little Women Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame / The Lion King
Without seeing Parasite, I highly doubt a foreign language movie winning BP... Roma’s Best Director win last year was its consolation prize
I saw a tweet the other day that was along the lines of Parasite having virtually no widespread complaints about it/doesn't have separate camps of people that dislike it for some reason. If I find it I'll link it, but I think that's a reason it has a good shot - I feel like there's absolutely zero negativity towards it.
it also will benefit from traditional theatrical release. i feel like half the critique about roma was about the netflix model. which was incredibly dumb, but still.
Surprised so many people think OUATIH has a shot to win. I think it’s in the bottom half if I had to rank them from most-to-least likely to win right now.
Documentary Feature update: American Factory and The Edge of Democracy are both streaming on Netflix Honeyland is streaming on Hulu. For Sama is streaming on PBS' Frontline website. The Cave is in select theaters right now, but is going to be available to rent on Amazon on January 14.
Hanks is a great actor, but yeah, he doesn't always pick great projects (The Ladykillers, Cloud Atlas, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Polar Express, Larry Crowne, The Da Vinci Code/Angels & Demons). I really like him a lot in Catch Me If You Can and Sully though, and I'm psyched he got nominated for this.
I thought he deserved a nod for Bridge of Spies, personally. He was great in that and it was a great movie in general.