2019-2020 NFL Season Thread [ARCHIVED] Football • Page 1324

If I’m Cincy I’m laughing at that offer and hiring a calligraphist to make sure my QBs name is written as elegantly as possible on the draft card.

 

Because your QB can be the baseline you use to evaluate your coach and make these decisions with. When you have a true franchise guy that you don't necessarily need to do MASSIVE development on, it makes it very easy to tell who needs to stay and who needs to go. Versus a guy like Fromm who WOULD need further development and would be harder to get a read on.

If you can't trust your coach to develop he needs to go but the best way to tell how he does is to have a good control aka a franchise QB

 

I just feel like the Bengals would waste Burrow. I think the business / marketing side of things is the only logical counterargument - I get that you can’t sell an uninspiring QB to fans after 10 years of Dalton.

But other than that i just feel like it’s better strategically for a team to set their roster up and then trade up for a QB when they are ready. Like, that’s what the Rams, Eagles, and Texans did right? And hell, even though they finished with pick 10, the Chiefs weren’t that incomplete of a team when they drafted Mahomes either.

 

The Rams were an incredibly bad team when they drafted goff what are you talking about lol

 

Incredibly mismanaged. They still had Jeff Fisher. But the team roster wasn’t that terrible. They had no receivers yet but they had Gurley and a defense.

 

Their roster was traaaaaaaaash lol

 

I also don’t think 3 first round picks, and a decent 28 year old veteran QB with a reasonable contract capable of playing well as a starter, is a “laughable” offer. I mean if Burrow isn’t “their guy” then they would take that all day. (Unlikely though cause Burrow is damn good.)

For the draft pick itself, that trade offer is fair value. It’s not like we’re trading up from the bottom of the first.

 

Stop saying it's an offer of 3 first-round picks. It's 2 and then sliding yours back. And yeah, that's a bad offer to me. Very bad. Very very bad. If it were 3 new ones with sliding back, then yeah, maybe. But gaining a mid-first-round pick, waiting a whole year and then gaining a second mid-first-round pick does nothing for me compared to adding a franchise QB.

 

We just had this argument yesterday, I started saying 3 because you and @CarpetElf insisted I say 3. Now you’re saying it the way I was saying it yesterday lol.

 

I don't remember insisting, but i kinda like just changing my mind on you every day.

Anyway, adding 2 first round picks sucks and isn't worth blowing off drafting a stud qb

 

A lot of that roster was there already but everyone looked like shit until (gasp) they drafted a QB at #1 as their baseline and Fisher was ousted

There was no way to evaluate that they had talent on their hands until they got their QB and coach. The Bengals can move that way too

 

Randall keeps talking about putting off drafting a QB for who knows how long in favor of drafting as many players as possible and developing them without realizing that players/coaches/people in the front office have jobs and every year is a greater risk at losing your job so long as you continue to kick the can further and further down the road on when you're gonna draft a QB

 

Has anyone done the legwork to determine the percentage of first round QBs (maybe even top 10 pick QBs) develop into franchise QBs or bust?

 

No. I thought you were our excel guy on this.

 

I'll do it if we can first define a standard of bust. I.e. is Goff a bust because we all think he stinks or is he good because he's a starting calibur qb?

 

It's tough because you also have to factor which QBs existed when you were allowed to sack them

 

Goff helped take his team to a Super Bowl, even if he doesn't completely pan out I don't think he can necessarily be a bust

If he is a bust he's the ceiling of busts I think

 

You'd probably need three categories of franchise QB, average starter, and bust. and probably begin with 2016 or 2015 and prior as anyone drafted after would be too soon to tell

 

I'm not sure what it is, but I've heard it be discussed before and it's not that high. It's always a huge risk, but so is drafting anybody. I've heard/seen it mentioned that the hit rate past pick, like, #20 is actually pretty low, at least on their first contract

 

Fair standard. Gimme an hour.

 

And my only point is if the odds are like 50/50 between that QB being your franchise QB vs bust then yeah I'd draft the QB everytime probably. But if it's like 25% I would trade out and build the team and bring in a veteran.

 

Goff is a prime example of average starter/middle of the road QB. I don't think he's a guy who elevates the players around him, but he performs well when the environment around him is stable/good. He'll have some great seasons (2018), good seasons (2017), okay seasons (2019), and bad seasons (2016, albeit short). We've already begun to see that with him.

 

But yeah no that’s not an awful deal.

For the Rams to move up from
15 to 1 for a franchise QB, they gave up two seconds, two thirds, and the following year’s first. They didn’t even have another first that year to give Tennessee, AND TEN gave then back a fourth and a sixth.

That’s not a better offer. If Cincy wants more picks rather than high picks we can do that, OR they can use our first rounder next year to trade down and get the same or more picks in return.

For the Eagles to move up for a franchise QB, they gave up that year’s third and fourth and the next year’s first and second. And got a fifth back. Which is even less than the Rams but granted they moved up from 8 not from 15.

Me offering the Bengals a second first round pick THIS year (in addition to the one we are using to “move up”) is a bigger “piece” than any part of the Wentz / Goff deals becuase the Eagles & Rams didn’t have two first round picks to give that year.

And again, Foles is worth less than the picks but it still sweetens the deal a bit because no matter what happens they still addressed the QB position

 

I just think if you have a top three pick, you gotta stay there and get your guy at an absolutely vital position, such as QB, as opposed to trading out in favor of more picks and a veteran QB because there's a damn good chance those players net you more wins and you no longer have that great opportunity to draft a potentially franchise-altering player with a top three pick.

 

ESPECIALLY if you're on a bad streak and have had time to pick QBs and passed on them