Ferrari333SP's Recent Activity

  1. Ferrari333SP replied to the thread AI.

    Is AI a bubble? "On the basis of these gauges, genAI remains in a demand-led, capital-intensive boom rather than a bubble. But booms can sour quickly, and there are several pressure points worth watching: If investment climbs toward 2% of GDP, it could suggest the economy is overweighting AI relative to its productivity returns; equally, if one or more hyperscalers were to cut capex by more than a fifth over the next three to five years, that would mark a sharp turn in sentiment that could trigger a rapid decline among other players. A sustained fall in current enterprise and consumer spending levels would be another warning, especially if foreshadowed by a shrinking Nvidia order backlog. At the same time, the economics need to improve: revenues per dollar of capital should move toward the 0.5–1.0 range. Should the gap fail to close, it would imply that scale is not delivering the expected efficiencies. If valuations start approaching a P/E ratio of 50-60, it would look frothy, since a genuine growth phase should see earnings catching up with prices, not lagging further behind. If internal cash covers less than 25% of capex, data center investment stability comes under pressure. Right now, stability comes from hyperscalers’ strong cash flows. If they stop covering the majority of capex, then more debt and securitization will creep in. Not great given a GPU’s depreciation cycle. If internal funding slips below a quarter of new capex and reliance shifts toward debt and securitization, the sector’s dependence on short-lived GPUs and its exposure to higher interest rates could quickly become destabilizing. My current heuristic is that if two of the five gauges head into red, you’re in bubble territory. Time to sell up, buy the VIX and take some deep breaths. In the year prior to the Panic of 1873, the railroad’s economic strain turned red, accompanied by a decline in funding quality. Anemic revenue growth didn’t help. With the telecoms crash of 2001, revenue growth and funding quality blared red. In the dot-com era, it was industry investment strain and valuations. GenAI isn’t there yet. Racing fast, the engine is whining, but not overheating. How long would it take for two gauges to get into the red? I’ve toyed around with combinations, and most scary scenarios take a couple of years to play out. (And not all scenarios are scary.) That said, so many macro factors, from a recession in the US, to rising inflation, a challenging interest-rate environment, and domestic or international politics, could dampen spirits. While we might not be solidly in bubbleland, it would be hubristic to assume the AI investment cycle is immune to those exuberant dynamics. Onward. For now."

    Oct 14, 2025 at 4:41 AM

  2. Ferrari333SP replied to the thread TV Show Tulsa King (Paramount+).

    Also, speaking of Landman, the oilfield theft stuff from the first season is becoming a real issue in Texas lately Don’t Mess with Texas: Organized Oilfield Theft Triggers Statewide Response | OilPrice.com

    Oct 14, 2025 at 4:33 AM

  3. Ferrari333SP replied to the thread TV Show Tulsa King (Paramount+).

    Yeah the writing seems a bit lazier this season compared to the previous season. The AI stuff seems like they just needed something for those few characters to do, since they aren't really necessary for the main plot.

    Oct 14, 2025 at 4:32 AM

  4. Ferrari333SP replied to the thread TV Show Slow Horses (Apple TV+).

    Finished season 3; a definite step up from season 2, in story and in humor. Will start season 4 tonight

    Oct 14, 2025 at 12:47 AM

  5. Ferrari333SP replied to the thread Running.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/strava-garmin-lawsuit-9.6931428 "There was an undeniable cuteness when runners referred to Strava and Garmin as "Mom and Dad" last week. The two brands are now engaged in a legal battle threatening to end their longtime partnership, leaving runners and cyclists hoping for a peaceful resolution. For the uninitiated: Garmin smartwatches have become as ubiquitous as iPhones among marathoners and other serious athletes, offering an easy way to track their distances and racing times. Strava, similarly, is the go-to platform for athletes' outdoor resumes, showcasing their best times for all to see. In other words, runners and cyclists typically track their activity on Garmin and then upload it to Strava. But now, a quarrel between the brands threatens this longtime status quo. On September 30, Strava filed a lawsuit against Garmin in a Colorado court, alleging that two of Garmin's features had infringed on Strava's own patents, violating an agreement between the companies. The first feature at issue is "segments," or stretches of trail that allow users to compare performances in the same route. Strava is also suing over Garmin's use of heatmaps, which are visual representations of the most popular places to run or ride. The lawsuit has surprised many in the running and cycling communities. After all, Garmin has been Strava's most important business partner for a decade. And Strava's lawsuit makes some major demands. The brand is seeking damages, but also wants to stop Garmin from selling watches that include the claimed patent infringements. It's unlikely, however, that Strava will convince a court to prohibit sales of Garmin products. A close examination of Strava's legal claims has puzzled even many of its longtime defenders. DC Rainmaker pieced together a chronology of patent history for both of the features at issue in Strava's lawsuit. His conclusion? The lawsuit doesn't make a lot of sense. "Heatmaps and the generation of routes across them were simply not a Strava invention, nor were they new," Ray Maker wrote, and made a similar argument about the "segments" feature. "This just seems like an incredibly bizarre move that’s almost certain to backfire." That's certainly the reaction of many online comments as well. Matt Salazar, Strava’s Chief Product Officer, made a Reddit post further explaining the company's decision to sue Garmin: "On July 1st, Garmin announced new developer guidelines for all of its API partners, including Strava, that required the Garmin logo to be present on every single activity post, screen, graph, image, sharing card etc...We consider this to be blatant advertising." Most of the comments on the Strava subreddit, however, were not supportive of Salazar's argument — or Strava's lawsuit. Why It Matters Runners Upset: "Have you seen the news that Mom and Dad are fighting?" California ultrarunner Andy Glaze said in a now-viral TikTok video. "I'm sitting here with my thousand-dollar watch and my $80 app and thinking, can we just get a family meeting and start getting along again?" Larger Context: Many Strava users have called the platform hypocritical for its lawsuit against Garmin. In 2024, Strava changed the rules for many brands that partnered with it. That meant that some of its longtime partners, like TrailForks, could no longer import Strava activities onto their platforms."

    Oct 13, 2025 at 11:11 PM

  6. Ferrari333SP liked cj's post in the thread Running.

    got a 3:04 and a first place finish in a pretty small race today. first marathon ive ran since 2008 but im hoping this will push me to try some more.

    IMG_8323.jpeg Oct 13, 2025 at 11:09 PM
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