The Monty Hall Problem

always switch

 

I'm not feeling the logic.

Doesn't the probability reset each time a door is opened? so start 100 doors. all have 1/100. Open a zonk. Now every door has 1/99 chance.

Fuck, just went ahead and did a visual trial using each combination of 3 and it was right

 

I found this to be the best explanation:

You start out with two goats and one car.
Monty always eliminates one of the goat doors.
Every time you choose a goat and switch you win the car.
Every time you choose the car and switch you win a goat.
There is a 66.6% chance of choosing a goat on the first pick.
Therefore switching would win you the car 66.6% of the time.

The 100-door example really clinched it for me (regarding why the probability doesn't "reset" after each eliminated door). What are the odds you happened to pick the 1 door out of 100 with the car? Far more likely is the 1 door Monty doesn't eliminate.

 

This was such a fun watch. I feel like I don't use youtube properly. I watch such trash anytime I'm on there.

 

Wow, super interesting. Never thought about this before.

 

I'm not sure how one would use YouTube properly but I'm sure a high percentage just goes on loops for videos about nothing.